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My Meetup Misadventures (Part 5)

I left off in the middle of my e-mail reply to the IBD Meetup organizer from December 2014.

My message concluded:

     > Finally, maybe people interested in trading the same strategy
     > will be interested in working together to propose trades. I
     > think what I described as a trading concept for my IRA could
     > work wonderfully with a team if everyone were to present
     > one trade idea per day, for example. I’ll be interested to

I occasionally mention “do X once per day” thinking it’s a minimal ask. For many people, though, this may be anything but (as mentioned here with regard to brushing teeth). If I sounded demanding earlier in the message then this may make it worse.

     > hear if you find more interest in the options group. I think
     > $10/meeting is steep. I’d cap it at $5. I don’t think we need

Two or three points is the limit for what many people can digest at once. I already listed four points (after announcing there would be two) and each of those points is further explained by at least one or more details. The message is already overflowing, in other words, and now I am piling on by going on about something else.

To make matters worse, I am disagreeing with his cost proposal.

     > a large room because I’m guessing there won’t be more than
     > 5-10 attending.

Next I disagree with his mention of room size. Some people shut down when others disagree with them. Given that I’m a complete stranger, he may find it easier to ignore me altogether rather than expending perceived heavy effort in pursuit of an agreeable solution.

Why even mention cost or room size here, anyway? Besides the fact that I’m not really in any position to disagree since he’s an experienced organizer, it’s nothing that needs to be addressed now.

     > How much do attendees pay for the IBD Meetup? I agree with you,
     > by the way, about keeping the options group separate from the
     > IBD Meetup. Nice to read from you!

I thought my agreement on his suggestion to keep the groups separate would be a nice thing to say. Reading it now, he may have found that condescending. He has been the organizer of his group for a long time. Does he really need a pat on the back from someone who doesn’t know a thing?

I will present his reply next time.

My Meetup Misadventures (Part 4)

I left off presenting e-mail correspondence with an IBD Meetup organizer from December 2014. My hope was to get involved with his group on the option trading front.

My reply is given below. Because this was not particularly well-received, I am going to include editorial comments.

     > Here are some of my thoughts. I’d like an options group

I start right out with a demand, which sounds like I’m ordering food from a restaurant. To make this softer, I could have consolidated the first two sentences with “I was thinking of an options group…”

     > that does a couple things. First, heavy on networking.

“Couple” means two.

I follow that with a sentence fragment, which perpetuates the demanding tone. A nicer way of writing would be “…that could also serve a networking function.”

     > This is a solitary business and I don’t think I’ve met
     > another trader yet who hasn’t enjoyed the opportunity

I should be careful using absolutes with people I do not know. For the sake of expediency I use them in writing, but if you talk to me then I think you’ll find me to be more open-minded and willing to work toward a shared solution.

     > to “talk shop” with a fellow trader because they don’t
     > often get the chance. Second, I want people to share what
     > they’re doing (e.g. their “bread and butter” trading).
     > That can introduce ideas for others looking to trade
     > something new. Third, I want people who are interested

“I’d like… I want… I want…” This sounds like a list of bullet points, which may be too harsh for someone who doesn’t even know me. Also noteworthy is that I have now added a third item to the list when above I announced two. I wonder if it doesn’t sound like I can’t hold myself back from repetitively hammering away at something.

     > in working together to develop strategies. If a trader is
     > perfectly happy with his/her trading and needs nothing more
     > then s/he probably won’t be trying to attend a group anyway.
     > I think everyone interested in a group like this will be
     > interested to develop strategy.

Lots of absolutes (e.g. “perfectly,” “nothing,” “everyone”) and assumptions may connote inflexibility and dominance. Many people would not want to work with a complete stranger who sounds rigorous and opinionated.

For the future, if I feel the need to use language like this then I think a phone call would be better received. I am usually a pretty nice guy although it may not always translate in writing.

I will continue next time.

My Meetup Misadventures (Part 3)

I wrote last time about the Meetup that never was. Today I want to talk about a couple other [failed] attempts.

Ann Arbor Algos was a Meetup I [successfully] posted in 2012 that garnered too little interest for a first meeting. The inclusion criteria I specified were very stringent. I wanted potential members to purchase AmiBroker and data. I wanted potential members to have experience programming in AmiBroker or be willing to spend the time learning how. I wanted potential members to have trading strategies available for testing. If all this weren’t enough, I wanted potential members to have time every day for project-related phone calls and e-mails.

If this were a posting for a full-time paid position, then I might [or might not] find applicants in the local area who met stated criteria. Looking back, I now think this was too extreme as a Meetup for people to do in their spare time.

That’s not to say I learned my lesson, though, as evidenced by a December 2014 contact. Through networking, I heard a particular IBD group included a number of options traders. I sent the following introductory message to the organizer:

     > Options trading is what I do exclusively and I’m interested
     > in networking with other traders. I want to trade stock options
     > in my IRA and whether they be cash secured puts, covered calls,
     > credit spreads, or long diagonals, IBD could be of use to
     > select good stocks. However, the focus of my trading will never
     > be just trading stocks. I’ve been to some IBD meetups before
     > and really haven’t gotten much out of them because the focus
     > is on stocks. Do you think there’s opportunity with this group
     > or do you know if the group has serious options traders who
     > would be interested in meeting separately to discuss the
     > options piece? Thanks!

Reading this in retrospect, I don’t like the fact that I knocked stocks (i.e. “the focus… will never be just trading stocks”) or IBD meetups (i.e. “haven’t gotten much out of them”) to a guy who didn’t even know me. Nevertheless, he did respond:

     > We have held several introductory options sessions after our
     > IBD meetup. We do have 3-4 serious options traders that use
     > IBD and the meeting to get on the right stocks. One member was
     > an options floor trader for years on the CBOE.
     >
     > Our room costs $60 a night. If we could get interest from 8 or
     > so to attend we could spin off of our IBD lease and keep the
     > rate around $10 a person.
     >
     > I will float the idea at our January meet up and see if there
     > is enough interest. We might start with an every-other month
     > meeting. I would not associate this with IBD in any way. Let
     > me know your thoughts.

I will continue next time.

My Meetup Misadventures (Part 2)

After getting that rejection letter from Meetup.com, I responded with the following:

      > My reason for launching a Meetup is not to sell/market anything.
      > I make a living by trading. From a financial standpoint, $300
      > multiplied by few people for 12 monthly sessions where I would
      > be spending many hours preparing presentations is hardly
      > worthwhile. I have a passion for trading, I want to teach
      > others, and I also want to pay it forward. That’s why I am
      > looking to organize—not to establish a successful business
      > venture.
      >
      > The main reason to charge is to establish accountability. I
      > think the likelihood is much greater that someone paying
      > $300 will remain part of the group and continue attending.
      > I have been to many investing groups over the years. Most are
      > free. Some charge $3 – $5 each. People come and go from
      > month to month without any real consistency. This impedes
      > the learning curve from one topic to the next since the
      > average level of ignorance in the room remains constant as
      > older members stop going (often after attending just once)
      > and newer members join.
      >
      > I would argue that $300 is a nominal fee for which I plan to
      > offer tremendous value. I did a survey of roughly 10 trader
      > education programs. The average cost is somewhere around
      > $6,000 for 12 sessions (range $1,800 to $12,000). $300
      > is but a fraction for which attendees can be well on their
      > way to trading for a lifetime.
      >
      > Finally, the retail trading space sorely lacks community.
      > Money is a seldom-discussed topic. As a result, most people
      > know little about the fundamentals of trading/investing.
      > Meetup is a perfect way to bring people together for this
      > purpose. I plan to strongly encourage working together to
      > learn and to study simulated trades. I think one of the best
      > things any trader/investor can have is a group with whom to
      > share ideas and discuss losses. Isn’t community what
      > Meetup is all about?
      >
      > Again, I trade for a living so I will be fine if you deny
      > my group. I believe a Meetup like this is sorely needed,
      > though, and I believe it would provide spectacular value
      > to everyone involved.

I was very disappointed to receive no response to my e-mail. I thought it was decently written, too!

In retrospect, my downfall may have been the first paragraph. The first and last sentences contradict. Selling and marketing something is one thing while starting a successful business venture is quite another. Although my intent was not to make significant profit, I was looking to sell the group in order to secure an audience upon which to bestow my benevolence.

I will continue next time.

My Meetup Misadventures (Part 1)

Aside from the one group I did successfully organize (MOT), I had one failed attempt trying to organize a Meetup group.

The group description was as follows:

      > This Meetup is for people who are interested in trading for a living.
      > I intend for this to serve as Financial Literacy 101, 201, and 301 all
      > wrapped up together. When through, you should have a good
      > understanding of trading fundamentals, what it means to trade as a
      > business, and what kinds of trading plans might be worthwhile for
      > you to investigate further.
      >
      > The path I just described is one I have traversed. I aim to teach and
      > to serve as a mentor of sorts. I am not currently an investment adviser
      > and I make no guarantees. This is for educational purposes only.
      >
      > The fee will be $300 for 12 group sessions. You should view this as a
      > small investment toward a future of financial freedom. We will discuss
      > this upon initial contact.
      >
      > I am looking for no more than six people who are committed to learning
      > and self-directed investing. Please contact me via website to schedule
      > an initial call to remain in the group. Include your e-mail address and
      > phone number.
      >
      > I now have the skills for wealth management but I have yet to discover
      > an appropriate entryway to the industry. I ultimately aspire to serve
      > clients who are not interested in self-directed investing. To those who
      > are, I hope in the meantime to provide actionable education for a
      > tremendous value.
      >
      > Meetup times and location will be discussed on the initial phone call.

The response from Meetup.com was as follows:

      > Your group was not approved to become a Meetup.
      >
      > We reviewed your group… and it isn’t a fit for Meetup. Meetup does
      > not support groups whose sole purpose is to sell or market goods,
      > services, events, or event spaces.
      >
      > As a result, this group has been closed and taken off of Meetup.

The sole purpose of the group certainly was not to sell or market anything as described here.

I will continue next time.

Michigan Option Traders (Part 3)

What went wrong with Michigan Option Traders (MOT): the one trading group I did organize?

Aside from feeling very one-sided, I took issue with the physician’s apparent ego. Had I been able to implement his strategies then I might have stuck with the group longer. I thought he was a nice guy. He was willing to give of his time by presenting to the group (and thank goodness we had someone besides me willing to share!). He was willing to help others learn. He just never spoke of big losses especially in the rare month or two when I felt his particular strategies should have had some. Because I never saw how he fared during the roughest of times, I was not able to determine whether his approach was any better than mine: critical information I need in order to make change.

When it comes to trading (and life), losing happens and I believe we must discuss this and be prepared in order to put ourselves in a good position for longevity. I have talked about the tendency for crickets when a season of losing ensues (e.g. here, here, and here). I can’t put it any more plainly than the lyrics in Gloria Loring’s song:

     You take the good, you take the bad,
     you take them both and there you have
     The facts of life, the facts of life.

I did not feel the physician was transparent with losses and as a result, I lost confidence in him. Soon after scheduling meetings—largely monologues—lost flavor, I terminated the group.

One question I have asked myself over the last few years is whether I might gain by trying to work with him one-on-one. I have yet to make significant changes to my trading approach. I see [virtually] people having success with his strategies and I do know him personally, which should provide the trust and credibility I need in order to implement a new approach.

If it’s a matter of pride then perhaps I should swallow my own ego and go back to him for guidance especially since I believe ego has no place in trading. I really doubt my reluctance is a pride issue, though. I said in the MOT days that I wanted to morph my trading approach into something more along the lines of his. It’s also not like I have head hanging between my legs. I’m grateful to be profitable YTD despite a major drawdown in February.

I do feel as though I have little to offer in return. I’m happy to talk about my current trading approach but I don’t see why he would need it. I’m also happy to talk about other ideas I have for future trading. Because he seemed so set (maybe arrogant?) in his ways, though, I’m not sure why he would be too interested in that either. I really think he’s fine sticking with a profitable, defined-risk approach. If he’s arrogant then I would find that annoying but perhaps just something to be ignored for the sake of personal [trading] growth.

And if things are like the way they were in the MOT days then he probably wouldn’t mind or notice that I have little to offer in favor of being the center of attention once again.

Michigan Option Traders (Part 2)

I have now given myself permission to organize a premium trading group on Meetup.com. Before I go forth, I think it would helpful to go back and review where I have already been in this space beginning with Michigan Option Traders (MOT).

I touched upon my previous experience organizing trading groups here.

Although it did not last, MOT accomplished a few positive things. I scheduled and led meetings that we worked collectively to plan. We discussed trading and provided feedback to each other. We monitored and discussed some group trades. We went to a trading show (TD Market Drive) at the Detroit Ren Cen in 2015 [unfortunately we carpooled and someone—you know who you are—had to leave early, which kept us from the food and spirits afterward. No hard feelings though, really! 🙂 ]. As far as trading goes, I had as much fun with this group as I have described most anywhere else in this blog.

MOT fell a bit short with regard to achieving a true “give and take” between all members. Most members were beginners who did small trades [schedule permitting]. One member did not trade [but was great for technical support and group morale]. In terms of number and diversity of strategy, the physician was the biggest trader in the group. More on him in a moment.

Despite being the biggest trader in the group with regard to notional risk, I did not share a great deal due to my risky trading approach. I think my trading has a finite place but only for advanced traders capable of fully understanding overall portfolio implications. I tried to get everyone to at least say a sentence or two during each meeting about what they were trading now. When it was my turn, I usually capped it there—especially because I hoped my future trading would look more like the physican’s approach than my own.

With hopes of a more even give-and-take between everyone, then, I somewhat disqualified one of the two big traders in the group. Beginners seemed content listening to either advanced trader, the physician liked to hear himself talk, and even my preference was to hear him speak rather than doing the talking myself. Heavy disclaimers about my trading approach (scare tactics, almost) were probably icing on the cake. Over the course of many months, we went from being MOT to being the physician’s group.

I will continue next time.

The Case for Withholding Performance Reports (Part 2)

Today I continue discussion of an argument in favor of opacity surrounding performance reporting.

I recently spoke with a trader “E” who cited a performance claim he believed to be credible from an investor he had been speaking with over a long period of time. In E’s mind, the long time interval was sufficient to establish the investor’s credibility. E remembered an earlier date when the investor made a buy call for an [allegedly] substantial position. The stock went on to do extremely well.

I think E is probably right about this specific example but in my experience, the example is unusual. I meet people in forums, Meetups, or investor shows, and they boast about performance or big wins. These aren’t people I have known for a long time nor are they people who have given me specific market calls (which I would never ask for, anyway). Stories aplenty exist about social media profiles of “investors” who make various buy/sell calls over time. Most of these do poorly. Every now and then—if only by chance alone—one does well and that profile gets all the press.

I will point out one important caveat with regard to E’s example: without brokerage statements and/or tax returns, E really has no idea how “substantial” the position is. Position size is important with regard to performance because the smaller the position, the more willing one may be to gamble on a trade. From a marketing perspective, I should tell many strangers about new positions: if wrong then I look human and if right then I look like a hero. E may be experiencing the latter.

I will conclude by addressing a potential contradiction mentioned in the footnote to my previous post. I said I would feel more comfortable reporting performance to people with whom I have an “advance degree of trust.” At the same time, I go ahead and report performance here. This blog is primarily to keep me on track with projects. I do not advertise this blog. I do not market this blog. I occasionally view the analytics and I know very few people read this blog. It’s therefore not the case that I share performance with large numbers of strangers (and certainly not in a timely manner).

It would appear that my previous dilemma over whether to organize a free and transparent Meetup has run into another dilemma over performance reporting. Sir Walter Scott’s quote is quite fitting here: “oh what a tangled web we weave when we first practice to deceive.”

The Case for Withholding Performance Reports (Part 1)

I am surprised to see myself defending opacity in the financial industry.

One of the things the industry routinely avoids is accurate performance reporting. I did an extensive review on the subject earlier this year. The upshot is that most potential clients fail to demand accountability by demanding such reports, that the opacity is likely self-serving for the industry, and that transparency might lead to compliance issues.

Unlike my shock and awe when doing the research, I found myself at least neutral if not favoring opacity when writing this recent post. More is to be said about performance than just the numbers alone. No matter how my results look, for example, the additional context would be downright scary. Consequently, I would feel more comfortable sharing with those I trust than with complete strangers.*

This concept is indirectly affirmed by S12 E15 of CNBC’s “American Greed.” As part of his fraudulent pitch, Ephren Taylor promised one plaintiff an annual return of 66% on a “riskless investment.” Taylor fits under the “worst-case scenario” umbrella along with Madoff and others profiled on the show. But even on much smaller orders of magnitude, I question whether performance claims are ever trustworthy when compliance is not onboard to ensure accuracy.

Performance is one of the most powerful tools con-artists use to defraud people. Promises of unrealistic returns hit the uneducated in arguably their most vulnerable spot. Fraud runs rampant in this industry where people are literally handing over money [with the hopes of investing but all too often with the result of getting robbed].

Because I never know who I’m dealing with when making new connections, I prefer to keep performance out of the discussion. It might be relevant if presented correctly, but the numbers are misleading often enough to necessitate scrutiny as a means to establish validity. I therefore don’t feel comfortable believing performance claims I hear from others and I don’t think they should either. It’s a cautious and maybe even pessimistic approach but I honestly credit an ability to avoid the lofty sales pitch as one of the keys to surviving 10+ years as a full-time trader.

In contrast to baseless claims, I would believe performance numbers generated from GIPS compliance and verification. This is precisely the sort of expense retail investors do not undertake.

* I will resolve a related contradiction next time.