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Like Statistical Minds?

Several weeks ago I listened to a presentation by David Wilt, co-founder of QuantyCarlo [QC], and for perhaps the first time in the option trading space, I heard what sounded like a kindred spirit. Today I will post some excerpts.

     “With this tool you can propose a set of values for DTE, study them, and then evaluate
     them: which gives you the best results and whether or not—and this is tremendously
     important—any of those results are statistically significant or whether you are simply
     looking at the random, stochastic behavior of trades in a sample space.”

     “Desirability index is a standard method in inferential statistics and modeling—a single
     measure (from 0 to 1) that reflects outcomes of interest to you.”

     “When we have results from any kind of backtest… the first question you have to answer
     is whether results are statistically significant: can you feel comfortable that when you
     trade live you will get similar results?”

     “QC Enterprise… provides you with a statistically sound (scientifically sound means to
     provide significant, predictable, reliable improvements)…”

     “I am absolutely convinced that 20-30 years from now, people will look back on this
     and say ‘well that was easy. That was a no-brainer.’ I think what we’re really doing
     here is taking a series of methods and techniques that have been applied in other
     industries and bringing them to the options trading space and what we have here
     is a tool that allows us to do the tests fast enough and sufficiently enough to
     apply these statistical models and give us the kind of predictive capability that
     has been achieved in other industries.”

     “We want to get this in front of the people because there are a huge number of
     smart people out there. We believe strongly that if we can engage them… if
     they will share with us their views of QC: good, bad, or indifferent… if we
     can learn from them then we will be able to continuously enhance this product.
     The engagement with folks and the learning that we can anticipate from engaging
     with them is invaluable and we appreciate the time and we appreciate people’s
     questions and we appreciate their comments because that’s so important to
     making this product and making the community more successful and I think
     that’s really what we’d like to see. So I want to personally thank everybody
     and say I look forward to the continued dialogue and I’m sure… QC [will] be
     better for it.”

I look forward to learning more about QuantyCarlo!

How to Learn Trading’s Best Kept Secret

Consistent profits through trading may be facilitated by a good piece of [backtesting] software.  Last week, I posted about a free on-line trading group I’m trying to form targeted toward learning the basics of AmiBroker (please see http://www.optionfanatic.com/2012/03/01/tradings-best-kept-secret/ ).

I feel strongly about participation with this group.  Except for the programmers and people with a heavy quant background, you’re not going to learn AmiBroker (AB) by casually opening the program once or twice a week and fiddling around for 10-15 minutes at a time (I speak from unfortunate experience).  Going forward, what I really want to do is take some time every single trading day to work with AB.  I’m better able to do this alongside others seeking to achieve similar goals.

I expect those of us in the group to post regularly and to really make it clear that we are doing the work to learn the program, develop our skills, and become better system developers and/or traders.

I don’t think it necessary to be a full-time trader to make this commitment. If you have a day job, kids, and family, then I understand life can get quite busy.  I do believe that if you’re going to learn AB then you need to set aside some time on a very regular basis.  If you can’t do that then perhaps something more user-friendly like Metastock or TC2000 would be a better fit.

Lurkers can hang out in the AmiBroker User’s List where plenty of experts already contribute their time at a level far too advanced for most newbies.

Lurking is not the way to proficiency.  I don’t want lurkers in the beginners’ group.

Trading’s Best Kept Secret

I’m a full-time options trader looking to diversify more of my portfolio to futures and equities.  System development and backtesting fits in here.

Last night, I posted the following on the Yahoo! AmiBroker (AB) User’s List:

“I’ve had AB for several months now but have struggled immensely with learning to code. I’m not a programmer. I found Bandy’s Introduction to AB to be hardly introductory. I believe the AB web site and documentation to be complete but hard for me to understand.

Is there anyone else like me out there?  What I’d like to do is form a small group of AB beginners looking to learn AB Formula Language (AFL) and improve their usage of the software. Our communication could take the form of a mailing list or on-line meetings. We could tackle some simple explorations or AFL code, share ideas, and generally help each other learn while demanding some accountability to be in the group.

If you’re interested then feel free to respond with your e-mail address or e-mail me directly.”

AB is like an indie version of more commercial software like Telechart 2000, eSignal, or Metastock.  For a one-time fee of $199, the consensus is that AB offers more functionality than any other product.  It is not widely promoted like the other products and it seems to have a small but loyal user base.  Few third parties have jumped in to provide education or support, which means you either enter the jungle and hack through the learning curve on your own or you pay a recurring monthly fee for something else.

If you are an AB user and can identify with my sentiment above then please contact me.  The intent here is not necessarily to form a group like that described in http://www.optionfanatic.com/2012/02/25/seeking-the-mastermind/ .  The goal here is strictly to better learn the software and to get more extensive use out of it.