DECK Stock Study (10-18-26)

Posted by Mark on October 26, 2026 at 07:11 | Last modified: October 18, 2026 12:34

I recently did a stock study on Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK, $85.71). The previous study is here.

M* writes:

     > Founded in 1973, California-based Deckers designs and sells
     > casual and performance footwear, apparel, and accessories.
     > In fiscal 2026, Ugg and Hoka accounted for 50% and 47% of
     > total sales, respectively. The firm also markets a niche
     > sandal brand Teva. Deckers produces most of its sales through
     > wholesale partnerships but also operates e-commerce in more
     > than 50 countries and has more than 200 company-operated
     > stores, about half of which are outlets. The firm generated
     > 58% of its fiscal 2026 sales in the United States.

Since 2018, this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 15.6% and 32.3%, respectively [FY ends Jan 31; calendar year from BI website and Value Line (VL) incremented by one to match]. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel. VL gives an Earnings Predictability score of 90. Shares outstanding decrease 24.1% (3.4% per year).

Since 2018, PTPM leads peer averages but trails the industry despite increasing from 11.6% to 24.2% (’26) with a last-5-year mean of 21.6%. ROE also leads peer averages but trails the industry despite increasing from 10.6% to 37.7% (’26) with a last-5-year mean of 33.2% (shareholder equity consistently positive and increasing 11.3%/year). Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages despite increasing from 3.3% to 13.1% (’26) with a last-5-year mean of 11.8%.

Quick ratio is 1.87 and interest coverage 328 per M* who assigns “Narrow” Economic Moat, “Exemplary” Capital Allocation, and a B grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives an A rating for Financial Strength and reports no long-term debt.

RightStock—a new tool on the BI website that I am tracking for informational purposes—gives a fitness score of 91 (“excellent”) and opportunity score of 92 (“excellent”).

With regard to sales growth:

• YF gives YOY ACE 7.4% and 7.2% for ’27 and ’28, respectively (based on 25 analysts).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 7.8% for both ’27 and ’28 (9 analysts).
• VL projects 8.6% per year from ’26-’31.
• CFRA projects 7.8% YOY and 7.3% per year for ’27 and ’26-’28, respectively.
• M* gives 2-year annualized ACE of 7.6% and projects 7.2%/year from ’26-’31 in Equity Report.

My 6.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch gives ACE 10.0% and 10.7% per year for ’26-’28 and ’26-’29 (based on 30 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com gives ACE 12.6% and 11.4% per year for ’27-’29 and ’27-’30 [10 / 4 / 1 analyst(s) for ’27 / ’29 / ’30].
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 7.1%.
• Argus projects 5-year annualized growth of 10.0%.
• Finviz gives 5-year annualized ACE of 9.9% (3).
• LSEG has LTG at 8.8%.
• YF gives YOY ACE of 7.3% and 10.7% for ’27 and ’28, respectively (22).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 6.8% and 10.9% for ’27 and ’28 along with 5-year annualized growth of 8.6% (10).
• VL projects 8.0% per year from ’26-’31.
• CFRA projects 6.8% YOY and 7.7% per year for ’27 and ’26-’28, respectively.
• M* gives long-term ACE of 10.9% and projects 10.6% from ’26-’31 in Equity Report.

My 6.0% per year forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of eight: 9.3%). Initial value is ’26 EPS of $7.02/share rather than 2027 Q1 $7.05 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 18.0. Since 2018, high P/E ranges from 16.9 in ’19 to 35.4 in ’25 with last-5-year mean of 27.7 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 20.7. I am near bottom of the range (only ’19 is less).

My Forecast Low P/E is 9.0. Since 2018, low P/E ranges from 8.2 in ’20 to 17.0 in ’25 with a last-5-year mean of 13.6. I am forecasting near bottom of the range [only ’20 and ’21 (8.8) are less].

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $63.20 is default based on initial value from above: 26.3% less than previous close and 18.1% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land DECK in the BUY zone with a U/D ratio of 3.7. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 14.5%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 8.1% is less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a solid margin of safety (MOS) backs this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 297 studies done in the past 90 days (my study and 89 outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 8.0%, 8.5%, 20.0, and 12.2, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL projects a future average P/E of 18.0 that is greater than MS (16.1) and much greater than mine (13.5).

MS high / low EPS are $10.65 / $6.99 versus my $9.39 / $7.02 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. VL (M*) high EPS of $10.30 ($11.78) is in the middle (greater than both).

MS LSPF of $69.10 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 9.9: less than the above-stated 12.2. MS LSPF is 19.0% less than the default $6.99/share * 12.2 = $85.28 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is still 9.3% greater than mine, though.

MOS is robust in the study because my inputs are below/near most historical/analyst/MS estimates and ranges. Supporting the MOS is MS TAR exceeding mine by 5.9% per year and my lower LSPF.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.33 and 1.90 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: fairly valued (0.54 per M*). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is quite low at 0.59. “Quick and dirty” cash flow has stock undervalued by 57% (including capex per Google AI’s recommendation). M* reports stock at a 34% discount.

Per my SSG, DECK is a U/D BUY right now under $89 share. [169.0 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $84 meets the BetterInvesting® TAR criterion given forecast high price of $169.

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