CPAY Stock Study (10-29-25)

I recently did a stock study on Corpay, Inc. [CPAY (formerly FLT), $285.59]. Previous studies are here, here, and here.

Value Line writes:

     > Corpay, Inc. (formerly FLEETCOR) is a leading independent provider of
     > fuel cards, and payment products and services throughout North America,
     > Latin America, and Europe. Its corporate charge cards cater to
     > commercial fleets, major oil companies, petroleum marketers, and
     > government entities. The company owns and operates proprietary
     > closed-loop networks electronically connected to merchants, through
     > which it captures and reports customized information.

Over the past decade, the medium-size company has grown sales and earnings at annualized rates of 9.6% and 13.7%, respectively. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for a sales+EPS decline in ’20. Ten-year EPS R^2 is 0.85 and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 85.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer averages but trails the industry while ranging from 31.5% in ’15 to 45.0% in ’18 with a last-5-year mean of 36.7%. ROE leads peer averages and tracks even with the industry while increasing from 12.0% (’15) to 31.8% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 30.3%. Debt-to-Capital is lower than peer and industry averages while trending higher from 50.9% (’15) to 71.9% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 67.3%.

Quick Ratio is 0.67 and Interest Coverage is 4.8 per M* who assigns “Narrow” [quantitative] Economic Moat and gives a C grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives a B+ grade for Financial Strength. CFRA writes: “We have a positive view of CPAY’s balance sheet, with a leverage ratio of 2.5x trailing 12-month EBITDA and total liquidity at $3.5B.”

With regard to sales growth:

• YF projects YOY 12.0% and 11.0% for ’25 and ’26, respectively (based on 14 analysts).
• Zacks projects YOY 11.8% and 10.5% for ’25 and ’26, respectively (7 analysts).
• VL projects 10.0% per year from ’24-’29.
• CFRA projects 11.2% YOY and 10.7% per year for ’25 and ’24-’26, respectively.
• M* provides a 2-year ACE of 11.4% per year.

I am forecasting below the range at 9.0% per year.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch projects 13.3% and 13.6% per year for ’24-’26 and ’24-’27, respectively (based on 18 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com projects 15.4% YOY and 15.7% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27 (7, 7, and 5 analysts for ’25, ’26, and ’27).
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 13.2%.
• Finviz gives ACE 5-year annualized growth of 13.5% (8).
• LSEG gives LTG estimate of 13.2%.
• YF projects YOY 10.8% and 15.5% for ’25 and ’26, respectively (14).
• Zacks projects YOY 10.9% and 15.5% for ’25 and ’26, respectively (8), along with 5-year annualized growth of 13.2%.
• VL projects 13.2% per year from ’24-’29.
• CFRA projects 11.5% YOY and 13.4% per year for ’25 and ’24-’26, respectively, along with a 3-year CAGR of 13.0%.
• M* projects long-term growth of 13.0%.

My 10.0% per year forecast is below the long-term-estimate range [mean of six (tightly clustered within 0.5%): 13.2%]. Initial value is ’24 EPS of $13.97/share instead of 2025 Q2 $14.72 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 21.0. Over the last 10 years, high P/E falls from 43.0 (’15) to 27.6 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 28.1 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 22.6. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 13.0. Over the last 10 years, low P/E falls from 34.9 (’15) to 17.7 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 17.0. I am forecasting at bottom of the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $200.00. Default ($181.60) based on initial value given above seems unreasonably low at 36.4% (32.5%) less than the previous close (52-week low). My [arbitrary] selection is 30.0% (25.7%) less, respectively.

These inputs land CPAY in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 2.2. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 10.6%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) is less than I seek for a medium-size company at 6.0%. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 139 studies done in the past 90 days (my study and 34 outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 10.2%, 12.0%, 24.3, and 16.3, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL projects a future average annual P/E of 15.0 that is less than MS (20.3) and less than mine (17.0).

MS high / low EPS are $25.89 / $14.39 vs. my $22.50 / $13.97 (per share). My high EPS is lower due to a lower growth rate. VL’s high EPS of $35.40 soars above both.

MS LSPF of $232.40 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 16.2 vs. the above-stated 16.3. MS LSPF is 0.9% less than the default $14.39/share * 16.3 = $234.56. MS LSPF is 16.2% greater than mine, however.

I think MOS is robust in this study because my inputs are near or below analyst/MS estimates and historical ranges. MS TAR (16.3%) is 5.7% per year greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.0 and 1.8 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: fairly valued (1.7 per M*). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is slightly low at 0.86.

Per U/D, CPAY is a BUY under $268/share. BI TAR criterion is met [472.5 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $236 with a forecast high price ~$473 (no dividend).

A 90-day free trial to BetterInvesting® may be secured here (also see link under “Pages” section at top right of this page).