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ADBE Stock Study (10-28-25)

Posted by on January 31, 2025 at 07:34 | Last modified: October 30, 2025 08:27

I recently did a stock study on Adobe Inc. (ADBE, $357.80). Previous studies are here and here.

CFRA writes:

     > Adobe (ADBE) is the largest provider of applications used
     > to produce visual content, best known for its Creative
     > Cloud apps, Photoshop (#1 in photo editing, raster
     > graphics), Illustrator (#1 in drawing, vector graphics),
     > InDesign (#1 in page layout), and Premiere Pro (#1 in
     > video editing). Its apps are used by graphic designers,
     > photographers, publishers, video producers, animators,
     > and other creative professionals… ADBE’s apps are also
     > used by students, hobbyists, and part-time artists.

Over the past decade, the large-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 18.6% and 27.5%, respectively. Lines are up, mostly straight, and parallel with the exception of an EPS dip in ’21. Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.53 (0.87) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 75.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 18.2% (’15) to 32.2% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 34.0%. ROE also leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 9.0% (’15) to 37.5% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 36.3%. Debt-to-Capital is slightly less than peer and industry averages despite edging up from 21.4% (’15) to 30.0% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 25.0%.

Quick Ratio is only 0.87 but Interest Coverage is 35 per M* who assigns “Wide” Economic Moat, rates the company Exemplary for Capital Allocation, and gives an A grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives an A rating for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 8.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to earnings growth:

My 12.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of seven: 14.0%). Initial value is ’24 EPS of $12.36/share rather than 2025 Q3 EPS of $16.05 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 35. Over the past 10 years, high P/E ranges from 47.9 in ’16 to 74.7 in ’15 with a last-5-year mean of 58.2 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 44.6. I am below the range and at upper end of my comfort zone.

My Forecast Low P/E is 23. Over the past 10 years, low P/E ranges from 23.6 in ’20 to 55.6 in ’15 with a last-5-year mean of 31.0. I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $284.30 is default based on initial value given above. That is 20.5% less than the previous closing price and 13.2% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land ADBE in the BUY zone with an U/D ratio of 5.5. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 16.3%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) is 12.0%: pretty solid for a large-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 241 studies done in the past 90 days (80 outliers and my study excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 10.0%, 11.1%, 32.0, and 21.0. I am higher on all but sales [a very rare occurrence]. VL projects a future average annual P/E of 23.0, which is less than MS (26.5) and less than mine (29.0).

MS high / low EPS are $25.17 / $15.13 versus my $21.78 / $12.36 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower initial value. VL is in the middle at $23.00.

MS LSPF of $296.90 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 19.6: less than the above-stated 21.0. MS LSPF is 6.6% less than the default $15.13/share * 21.0 = $317.73 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 4.4% greater than mine, however.

I think MOS is solid in this study because my inputs are near or below analyst estimates and historical ranges. My inputs are greater than MS but my EPS range is still lower and MS TAR (18.3%) is 2.0% per year greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.3 and 1.7 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: fairly valued (1.5 per M*). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is quite cheap at 0.5, however, and Kim Butcher’s “quick and dirty DCF” calculates a fair value 63% higher than current.

Per U/D, ADBE is a BUY under $403/share. BI TAR criterion is met [762.4 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $381 with a forecast high price ~$762 (no dividend).

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ETSY Stock Study (10-28-25)

Posted by on January 28, 2025 at 07:19 | Last modified: October 28, 2025 14:10

I recently did a stock study on Etsy Inc. (ETSY, $75.56). Previous studies are here, here, and here.

M* writes:

     > Etsy operates a top-10 e-commerce marketplace operator in the
     > U.S. and the U.K., with sizable operations in Germany, France,
     > Australia, and Canada. The firm dominates an interesting niche,
     > connecting buyers and sellers through its online market to
     > exchange vintage and craft goods. With $12.4 billion in 2024
     > consolidated gross merchandise volume, Etsy has cemented itself
     > as one of the largest players in a quickly growing space,
     > generating revenue from listing fees, commissions on sold items,
     > advertising services, payment processing, and shipping labels.
     > As of the end of 2023, the firm connects about 95 million buyers
     > and 8 million sellers on its marketplace properties: Etsy and
     > Depop (clothing resale).

Since 2017 (previous years excluded due to negative EPS), the medium-size company has grown sales and earnings at annualized rates of 33.5% and 28.1%, respectively (’22 uses normalized EPS due to a $101.7 million non-recurrent impairment charge related to goodwill of its acquisitions of Depop and Elo7 leading to GAAP loss for the year). Lines are somewhat up, straight, and parallel despite EPS dip in ’18 and larger decline in ’23. Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.13 (0.59) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 50.

Since 2017, PTPM is greater than peer and industry averages while increasing from 10.2% to 14.6% (’24) with a last-5-year mean (excluding ’22) of 16.7%. ROE slightly leads peer and industry averages while ranging (excluding ’22) from -42.8% in ’23 to 80.9% in ’21 with a last-5-year mean (excluding ’22) of 12.0%. Debt-to-Capital has risen above peer and industry averages by climbing from 15.0% in ’17 to 147% in ’24. Despite being remarkably high, VL gives a B grade for Financial Strength and writes in a previous report:

     > Although debt represented over 100% of capital at the end of 2022,
     > cash and short-term investments totaled $1.2 billion and the
     > company has only modest debt due over the next five years.
     > Additional funds can be sourced from the company’s $200 million
     > undrawn revolver and $29.1 million in long-term investments that
     > can be liquidated on short notice.

M* rates the company “Wide” for Economic Moat, gives a “Standard” rating for Capital Allocation, and a C grade for Financial Health (per BI website). Previous report indicates they are not concerned about debt:

     > With our forecast for just 0.8 times average net leverage over the next
     > five years (net debt/adjusted EBITDA), a paucity of near-term debt
     > maturities, and a highly cash generative mode… balance sheet risk
     > appears minimal for the marketplace operator. We believe that Etsy
     > should encounter no difficulties in funding its investments in headcount
     > and platform development with internally generated funds, while
     > retaining substantial flexibility to invest in brand marketing and
     > strategic acquisitions. With no principal maturities until 2026, we
     > view Etsy’s balance sheet health as strong, despite the firm carrying
     > $2.3 billion in gross debt as of the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Quick Ratio is 3.2 and Interest Coverage is 20.

With regard to sales:

My 2.0% forecast is near bottom of the range.

With regard to EPS:

My 4.0% forecast is near bottom of the long-term-estimate range (mean of seven: 11.4%). Initial value is ’24 EPS of $2.35/share rather than 2025 Q2 EPS of $1.24 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 32.0. Since 2017, high P/E ranges from 32.1 in ’17 to 96.5 in ’19 with a last-5-year mean of 63.0. The last-5-year-mean average P/E is 43.2. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 14.0. Since 2017, low P/E ranges from 11.1 in ’20 to 52.3 in ’19 with a last-5-year mean of 23.4. I am forecasting toward bottom of the range [’20 and ’17 (13.8) are lower].

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $52.00. Default ($32.90) based on initial value given above is unreasonably low at 56.5% less than the previous close and 17.8% less than the 52-week low. My [arbitrary] projection is 31.2% less than previous close but 30% greater than the 52-week low.

These inputs land ETSY in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 0.8. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 4.4%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) is -2.3%: unthinkable as an investment candidate. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR but even that is much less than I seek for a medium-size company.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on a tiny (anecdotal comparison only) sample of six studies (mine and two other outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 5.0%, 7.7%, 48.1, and 25.0, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL projects an average annual P/E of 29.0, which is less than MS (36.6) but greater than mine (23.0).

MS high / low EPS are $1.89/ $1.24 versus my $2.86/ $2.35 (per share). All six MS studies use $1.24, which I think is unreasonably low due to a losing quarter [only two since ’17 and both should be excluded due to non-recurrent items. This instance, 2025 Q1, includes non-cash foreign exchange loss and sale of Reverb] that also depresses high EPS. VL’s high EPS soars above both at $5.25/share.

MS LSPF of $31.00 is the default value. As described above in the Projected Low Price section, I think it unreasonably low.

I believe MOS is solid in this study because my inputs are near or below analyst/historical estimates/ranges. Mainly due to small sample size, I don’t put much weight on MS comparison.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.0 and 14 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: extremely high on average (M* agrees at 3.4). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is also expensive at 1.4. Kim Butcher’s “quick and dirty DCF” has the stock undervalued by 52%, though. Unfortunately, the only thing I’ve found consistent about these valuation metrics is their inconsistency.

Per U/D, ETSY a BUY under $61/share. BI TAR criterion is met [91.5 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $46 with a forecast high price ~$92 (no dividend).

Full disclosure: I currently own ETSY shares.

A 90-day free trial to BetterInvesting® may be secured here (also see link under “Pages” section at top right of this page).

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WAL Stock Study (10-27-25)

Posted by on January 23, 2025 at 06:59 | Last modified: October 27, 2025 08:40

I recently did a stock study on Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL, $79.30). Previous studies are here, here, here, and here.

M* writes:

     > Western Alliance Bancorporation is a Las Vegas-based holding company
     > with regional banks operating in Nevada, Arizona, and California. The bank
     > offers retail banking services and focuses on mortgages for retail
     > customers and commercial loans. The company’s reportable segments are
     > Commercial segment includes provides commercial banking and treasury
     > management products and services to small and middle-market businesses,
     > specialized banking services to sophisticated commercial institutions and
     > investors within niche industries, as well as financial services to the
     > real estate industry. Consumer Related segment offers both commercial
     > banking services to enterprises in consumer-related sectors and consumer
     > banking services, such as residential mortgage banking. Corporate & Other.

Over the past decade, this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 22.1% and 17.0%, respectively. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for EPS decline in ’23. Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.06 (0.82) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 70.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages despite falling from 50.0% (’15) to 32.0% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 46.3%. ROE leads peer and industry averages despite edging lower from 13.8% (’15) to 12.2% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 16.9%. Debt-to-Capital has jumped above peer and industry averages over the last few years while increasing from 18.5% (’15) to 49.7% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 41.1%.

M* gives a [distressing] Financial Health grade of C (per BI website) and VL rates the company B+ for Financial Strength.

ROAA increases from 1.56% in ’15 to 1.94% in ’21 before falling to 1.02% in the last two years (low for the 10-year period). Anything above 1.25% (1.50%) is great (exceptional). This could stand some improvement.

With regard to sales growth:

I am forecasting below the range at 8.0% per year.

With regard to EPS growth:

My forecast of 10.0% per year is well below the long-term estimate range (mean of five: 17.2%). Initial value is ’24 EPS of $7.09 rather than 2025 Q2 EPS of $7.61 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 10.0. Over the past 10 years, high P/E falls from 19.3 (’15) to 13.8 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 13.1 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 9.1. I am below the 10-year high P/E range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 5.0. Over the past 10 years, low P/E falls from 12.1 (’15) to 7.6 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 5.0. I am forecasting toward lower end of the range [only ’23 (1.1: potential outlier during period of extreme market volatility) and ’20 (4.1) are less].

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $55.00. Default ($35.50) based on initial value given above seems unreasonably low at 55.2% (37.7%) less than previous close (52-week low). My LSPF (arbitrary) is 30.6% (3.5%) less, respectively.

WAL commences dividend in 2019 with a last-5-year mean Payout Ratio (PR) of 16.2%. My 10.0% forecast is below the range.

These inputs land WAL in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 1.4. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 8.6%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 2.9% is less than the current yield on T-bills. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 50 studies done in the past 90 days (my study along with 19 outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 10.0%, 11.5%, 12.6, 5.9, and 16.8%, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL projects a 2026 average annual P/E of 7.2 that is less than MS (9.3) and mine (7.5).

MS high / low EPS are $13.03 / $7.54 versus my $11.42 / $7.09 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate.

MS LSPF of $45.70 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 6.1: greater than the above-stated 5.9. MS LSPF is 2.7% greater than the default $7.54/share * 5.9 = $44.49 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is 16.9% less than mine, however.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 0.6 and 0.9 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: slightly undervalued (M* agrees at 0.74). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is slightly elevated at 1.14.

MOS is robust in the current study because my inputs are near or below MS and respective analyst/historical ranges. As further evidence, MS TAR is [a lofty] 8.6% per year greater than mine.

Per U/D, WAL is a BUY under $69/share. BI TAR criterion is met [114.2 / ((13.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $59.50 with a forecast high price ~$114.

Full disclosure: I currently own WAL shares.

A 90-day free trial to BetterInvesting® may be secured here (also see link under “Pages” section at top right of this page).

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CBT Stock Study (10-27-25)

Posted by on January 21, 2025 at 06:54 | Last modified: October 26, 2025 10:31

I recently did a stock study on Cabot Corp. (CBT, $71.34).

M* writes:

     > Cabot Corp manufactures and sells a variety of chemicals, materials,
     > and chemical-based products. The company organizes itself into the
     > following operating segments based on the product type; the
     > Reinforcement Materials segment which generates maximum revenue
     > provides reinforcing carbon products used in tires, and industrial
     > products such as hoses, belts, extruded profiles, and molded goods;
     > and the Performance Chemicals segment aggregates the specialty
     > carbons, specialty compounds, fumed metal oxides, battery
     > materials, inkjet colorants, and aerogel product lines.

Over the past nine years (FY ends 9/30), the medium-size company has grown sales and earnings at annualized rates of 6.8% and 12.7%, respectively. This excludes negative GAAP earnings in ’18 (primarily due to a significant one-time tax expense related to TCJA despite strong operating performance and healthy cash flow per Google AI) and ’20 [per Google AI, significant nonrecurrent charges include: Purification Solutions divestiture (major) resulting in large asset impairment and loss, valuation allowance (increasing on US deferred tax assets), executive transition costs, and costs associated with other restructuring actions]. Lines are somewhat up, straight (more jagged), and parallel despite sales dip in ’23 and EPS declines in ’19, ’22, and ’24. Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.56 (0.67) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 60.

Over the past nine years, PTPM is roughly equal to peer and industry averages while ranging from -1.3% in ’20 to 13.2% in ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 8.6%. ROE is also on par with peer and industry averages despite trending up from 11.3% (’16) to 27.1% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 17.6%. Debt-to-Capital is roughly even with peers and the industry while ranging from 38.4% in ’17 to 63.5% in ’20 with a last-5-year mean of 56.3% (per CFRA, only two of eight NYSE- or Nasdaq-traded peers are currently lower).

Quick Ratio is 1.25 and Interest Coverage is 8.80 per M* who assigns “Narrow” for Economic Moat and gives a Financial Health grade of B (per BI website). VL gives a B++ for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My flat forecast conservatively extends doubtful near-term growth to long-term.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 3.0% forecast is less than either long-term estimate (mean 6.1%). Initial value is ’24 EPS of $6.72/share rather than 2025 Q3 EPS of $7.65 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 15.0. Over the last nine years excluding ’18 and ’20, high P/E falls from 22.9 (’16) to 16.8 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 16.8 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 16.1. I am near bottom of the range (only 10.8 in ’23 is less).

My Forecast Low P/E is 8.0. Over the last nine years excluding ’18 and ’20, low P/E falls from 13.3 (’16) to 9.7 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 9.9. I am forecasting near the bottom of the range (only 7.8 in ’23 is less).

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $53.80 is default based on initial value given above. This is 24.6% less than the previous closing price and 19.1% less than the 52-week low.

Over the last nine years excluding ’18 and ’20, Payout Ratio (PR) falls from 44.4% in ’16 to 24.7% in ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 29.4%. I am forecasting near bottom of the range at 20.0% (only 19.9% in ’23 is less).

These inputs land CBT in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 2.6. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 11.8%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 6.5% is less than I seek in a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only 8 studies (three outliers including mine excluded leaves too small a sample for anything but anecdotal comparison) over the past 90 days, averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 5.3%, 5.9%, 14.5, 9.0, and 29.4%, respectively. I am lower on all but Forecast High P/E (15.0). VL’s projected average annual P/E of 14.0 is greater than MS (11.8) and greater than mine (11.5).

MS high / low EPS are $9.79 / $7.41 versus my $7.79 / $6.72 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. VL is in the middle at $9.50.

MS LSPF of $62.00 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 8.4: less than the above-stated 9.0. MS LSPF is 7.0% less than the default $7.41/share * 9.0 = $66.69 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 15.2% greater than mine, however.

I think MOS is solid in this study because my inputs are near or below analyst/MS/historical estimates/ranges. Adding some anecdotal support is MS 16.3% TAR being 4.5% per year greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 3.0 and 0.2 per my projected P/E and M*: overvalued or dirt cheap, respectively. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is also cheap at 0.72.

Per U/D, CBT is a BUY under $69/share. BI TAR criterion is met [116.8 / ((13.57 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $61.50 with a forecast high price ~$117.

A 90-day free trial to BetterInvesting® may be secured here (also see link under “Pages” section at top right of this page).

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APD Stock Study (10-24-25)

Posted by on January 16, 2025 at 07:04 | Last modified: October 25, 2025 10:01

I recently did a stock study on Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD, $254.93). Previous studies are here and here.

M* writes:

     > Since its founding in 1940, Air Products has become one of the
     > leading industrial gas suppliers globally, with operations in
     > 50 countries and 19,000 employees. The company is the largest
     > supplier of hydrogen and helium in the world. It has a unique
     > portfolio serving customers in a number of industries, including
     > chemicals, energy, healthcare, metals, and electronics.

Over the last decade, this large-size company has grown sales and earnings at annualized rates of 4.0% and 10.7%, respectively. Lines are somewhat up and parallel. Sales has a long flat time from ’15-’21 followed by further YOY dips in ’23 and ’24. EPS declines YOY in ’17 (perhaps TCJA). 5- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.75 (0.81) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 100.

Over the last decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while trending higher from 17.5% (’15) to 39.8% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 27.2%. ROE slightly lags peer and industry averages despite increasing from 16.7% (’15) to 25.4% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 17.9%. Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages while ranging from 23.1% in ’19 to 46.8% in ’16 and ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 41.5%.

Quick Ratio is 1.07 and Interest Coverage is 10.9 per M* who gives a Capital Allocation rating of “Standard,” assigns “Wide” for Economic Moat, and gives a Financial Health grade of B (per BI website). VL gives an A+ for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 1.0% forecast is near bottom of the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

My initial forecast of 2.0% is below the range of seven long-term estimates (mean 4.5%), but I am lowering further to zero. One option for initial value is trendline $13.13/share. A second option is to use ’24 EPS of $17.24/share; being up 67.4% YOY, this seems extremely high. Google AI explains: “a nonrecurring gain from the sale of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) business boosted Air Products and Chemicals’ (APD) fiscal year 2024 GAAP earnings per share (EPS) by $5.38.” Also explained is why CFRA shows normalized EPS of $12.43 (puzzling that VL does not mention the nonrecurring gain in footnotes). The third option is 2025 Q3 EPS of $7.05 (annualized): extremely low. Of the three options, trendline is most reasonable but still high. I am compensating for that by decreasing the 2.0% forecast.

My Forecast High P/E is 24.0. Over the last 10 years, high P/E ranges from 17.5 in ’24 to 36.3 in ’20 with a last-5-year mean of 30.6 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 25.5. I am near bottom of the range (greater than ’24 and equal to 21.0 in ’16).

My Forecast Low P/E is 15.0. Over the last 10 years, low P/E ranges from 12.3 in ’24 to 26.9 in ’21 with a last-5-year mean of 20.4. I am forecasting near the bottom of the range (only ’24 is less).

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $197.00 is default based on initial [trendline] value. This is 22.7% less than the previous closing price and 19.2% less than the 52-week low.

Over the last decade, Payout Ratio (PR) ranges from 41.0% in ’24 to 71.9% in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 59.1%. I am forecasting bottom of the range at 41.0%. Per M*, dividend has grown 43 years in a row.

These inputs land APD in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 0.4. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 3.5%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 0.8% is much less than the current risk-free rate (T-bills). If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR but even that would be too low.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 27 studies (my study and 9 other outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 5.0%, 6.1%, 28.4, 19.7, and 59.1%, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL’s projected average annual P/E of 28.0 is greater than MS (24.1) and much greater than mine (19.5).

MS high / low EPS are $16.01 / $7.05 versus my $13.13 / $13.13 (per share). My high EPS is lower due to a zero growth rate. VL is in the middle at $15.00.

MS LSPF of $192.80 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 27.3: greater than the above-stated 19.7. MS LSPF is 38.8% greater than the default $7.05/share * 19.7 = $138.89 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is 2.1% greater than mine, however.

I think MOS is solid in this study because my [adjusted] inputs are near or below analyst/MS/historical estimates/ranges. TAR is much lower than MS 12.7%.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 2.4 and 2.3 per M* and Zacks, respectively: both overvalued. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is also rich at 1.4.

APD is a BUY under $216. With a forecast high price ~$276, BI TAR criterion is met [275.7 / ((12.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $150.

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ALRM Stock Study (10-23-25)

Posted by on January 13, 2025 at 06:59 | Last modified: October 23, 2025 11:43

I recently did a stock study on Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM, $51.04).

M* writes:

     > Alarm.com Holdings Inc has a cloud-based platform that offers
     > an expansive suite of IoT solutions addressing world-wide
     > opportunities in the residential, multi-family, small business
     > and enterprise commercial markets. It has two reportable
     > segments: Alarm.com & Other. The Alarm.com segment
     > represents the cloud-based Software platforms for intelligently
     > connected property & related solutions. The other segment is
     > focused on researching, developing & offering residential
     > & commercial automation solutions & energy management
     > products & services in adjacent markets. The… Alarm.com
     > segment… allows home & business owners to secure their
     > properties and automate & control an array of connected devices.

Since 2017, the small-size company has grown sales and earnings at annualized rates of 16.2% and 20.2% [earlier years excluded due to negative base resulting in mathematical distortion of growth rate (71.9%/year)]. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for EPS declines in ’18 and ’21. Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.34 (0.70) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 50.

Since 2017, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while edging up from 9.5% to 15.1% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 10.4%. ROE also leads peer and industry averages while trending up from 12.1% to 16.5% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 12.5%. Unfortunately, Debt-to-Capital is higher than peer and industry averages over the last few years by increasing from 23.4% to 59.3% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 43.6%.

Quick Ratio is 1.7 and Interest Coverage is 10.1 per M* who also assigns a “Narrow” [quantitative] Economic Moat and Financial Health grade of B (per BI website). VL gives a B+ grade for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 4.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 6.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of four: 8.6%). Initial value is ’24 EPS of $2.29/share instead of 2025 Q2 EPS of $2.38 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 33.0. Since 2017, high P/E falls from 83.9 to 33.8 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 66.7 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 52.3. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 17.0. Since 2017, low P/E falls from 45.5 to 22.6 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 37.9. I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $38.90 is default based on initial value given above. This is 23.8% less than the previous close and 19.3% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land ALRM in the BUY zone with a U/D ratio of 4.1. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 14.6%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 8.4% is less than I seek in a small-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only six studies done in the past 90 days (my study and two outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 4.2%, 4.7%, 34.4, and 24.3. [Although the sample size is too small for a valid comparison] I am lower on all but EPS growth. VL projects a future average annual P/E of 29.0, which is less than MS (29.4) and greater than me (25.0).

MS high / low EPS are $2.94 / $2.35 versus my $3.06 / $2.29 (per share). My high EPS is greater due that growth rate. VL is highest at $3.10.

MS LSPF of $42.10 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 17.9: less than the above-stated 24.3. MS LSPF is 15.4% less than the default $2.35/share * 24.3 = $57.11 (INVALID on today’s date), which results in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 8.2% greater than mine, however.

I believe MOS is strong in this study because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges. Although my EPS growth rate is higher than MS, the tiny sample size precludes anything but anecdotal reference.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 2.0 and 3.4 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: slightly overvalued (1.3 per M*). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is very cheap at 0.41.

Per U/D, ALRM is a BUY under $54/share. BI TAR criterion is met 101 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5 ~ $50 given forecast high price ~$101 (no dividend).

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TSM Stock Study (9-24-25)

Posted by on January 10, 2025 at 07:37 | Last modified: October 23, 2025 10:21

I recently did a stock study on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ADR (TSM) with a closing price of $262.71. Previous studies are here, here, and here.

M* writes:

     > Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world’s largest
     > dedicated chip foundry, with mid-60s market share in 2024. TSMC
     > was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government
     > of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public in 1994 and
     > as an ADR in the US in 1997. TSMC’s scale and high-quality
     > technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins,
     > even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore,
     > the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds
     > for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious customer
     > base, including Apple, AMD, and Nvidia, that looks to apply
     > cutting-edge process technologies to its semiconductor designs.

Over the past decade, this mega-size (> $50B annual revenue) company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 15.1% and 17.4%, respectively. Lines are up, straight, and parallel except for an EPS dip in ’19 and sales/EPS dip in ’23. Five-year EPS (sales) R^2 is 0.78 (0.88) and Value Line gives an Earnings Predictability score of 75.

Over the past decade, PTPM is greater than peer and industry averages while increasing from 41.5% (’15) to 48.6% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 46.0%. ROE slightly trails while ranging from 21.6% in ’19 to 37.4% in ’22 with a last-5-year mean of 29.5%. Debt-to-Capital is much lower than peer and industry averages, ranging from 9.8% in ’18 to 26.0% in ’21 with a last-5-year mean of 21.5%.

Quick Ratio is 2.1 and Interest Coverage is 153 per M* who assigns a “Wide” Economic Moat and rates the company “Standard” for Capital Allocation. Value Line gives an A+ rating for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 12.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 13.0% forecast is bottom of the long-term-estimate range (mean of six: 20.2%). I will use ’24 EPS of $6.96/share as the initial value rather than 2025 Q2 EPS of $8.69.

My Forecast High P/E is 26.0. Over the past decade, high P/E increases from 14.1 (’15) to 30.5 (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 28.3 and a last-5-year-mean-average P/E of 20.4. I am forecasting above the last-10-year median of 21.8.

My Forecast Low P/E is 9.0. Over the past decade, low P/E ranges from 9.2 (’22) to 15.5 (’19) with a last-5-year mean of 12.5 (26.3 outlier in ’21 excluded). I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $134.30 is default based on $6.96/share initial value gives an unreasonable $64.70: 77.9% less than the previous close. I am going with the 52-week low despite being 52.5% less than the previous close. Semiconductors are a cyclical industry and I expect to see lower valuations again.

Over the past decade, Payout Ratio (PR) ranges from 28.6% (’22) to 58.8% (’18) with outliers from ’15 (0%) and ’19 (90.6%) excluded. The last-5-year mean is 38.7%. I am forecasting below the entire range at 28.0%.

These inputs land TSM in the SELL zone with a U/D ratio of 0.1. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 2.1%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) is NEGATIVE 4.5%. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR but even that is less than the risk-free rate (TBills).

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 254 studies (my study and 120 other outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 15.0%, 15.6%, 27.0, 15.2, and 38.7%, respectively. I am lower across the board. Value Line’s projected average annual P/E of 18.0 is lower than MS (21.1) but higher than mine (17.5).

MS high / low EPS are $16.95 / $8.21 vs. my $12.82 / $6.96 (per share). My high EPS is lower due to a lower growth rate. Value Line’s high EPS of $18.50 soars above both.

MS LSPF of $133.00 implies Forecast Low P/E of 16.2: more than the above-stated 15.2. MS LSPF is 6.6% greater than the default $8.21/share * 15.2 = $124.79 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is 1.0% less than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 2.2 and 1.3 per my projected P/E and Zacks, respectively: slightly overvalued. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is extremely rich at 1.59.

MOS is strong in this study because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges and MS averages. That is further supported by an MS TAR that is 12.5% per year greater than my 2.1%.

My final rating is HOLD rather than SELL because the company has double-digit long-term sales projections. Were it in my portfolio, history shows I might regret selling what appeared to be an overvalued stock that actually had the engine to continue powering higher. Otherwise, it makes no sense for me to establish a new position at this time.

Per U/D, TSM is a BUY under $134.30/share. Given a forecast high ~ $295, 294.9 * ((1 – ((15.0 – 1.2) / 100)) ^ 5) ~ $140 meets the BI TAR criterion.

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CHDN Stock Study (10-22-25)

Posted by on January 7, 2025 at 07:07 | Last modified: October 22, 2025 09:38

I recently did a stock study on Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) with a closing price of $96.61. The previous study is here.

M* writes:

     > Churchill Downs Inc is a gaming entertainment, online wagering,
     > and racing company. It operates through three business segments:
     > Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services, and Gaming. The
     > Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical
     > pari-mutuel racing. The Wagering Services segment includes the
     > revenue and expenses from pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires,
     > companies retail and online sports betting business and Gaming
     > segment includes revenue and expenses for the casino properties
     > and associated racetracks that support the casino license. The
     > Gaming segment generates revenue and expenses from slot
     > machines, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs,
     > ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services,
     > commission on pari-mutuel wagering, and racing events.

Over the past decade, the medium-size company has grown sales and earnings at annualized rates of 10.5% and 25.7%. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for sales dips in ’17 and ’20 along with EPS declines in ’19, ’20 (large), and ’23. 5- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.62 (0.37) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 30.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while trending up from 9.2% (’15) to 21.0% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 19.9%. ROE also leads peer and industry averages while trending up from 8.0% (’15) to 38.1% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 45.7%. Unfortunately, Debt-to-Capital is higher than peer and industry averages over the last few years as it has increased from 55.9% (’15) to 81.9% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 84.7%.

Quick Ratio is 0.39 and Interest Coverage is only 2.9 per M* (3.2 per VL) who also assigns a “Narrow” Economic Moat. VL gives a B+ grade for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 3.0% forecast is toward lower end of the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 5.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of five: 8.2%). Initial value is ’24 EPS of $5.68/share instead of 2025 Q2 EPS of $5.82 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 21.0. Over the past 10 years, high P/E ranges from 21.8 in ’22 to 41.3 in ’15 and ’21 (upside outlier of 644 in ’20 excluded). The last-5-year mean is 29.2 and the last-5-year-mean average P/E (also excluding ’20) is 24.8. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 13.0. Over the past 10 years, low P/E ranges from 15.1 in ’22 to 27.6 in ’21 (upside outlier of 160 in ’20 excluded) with a last-5-year mean of 20.3. I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $73.80 is default based on initial value given above. This is 23.6% less than the previous close and 13.8% less than the 52-week low.

Over the past decade, Payoff Ratio (PR) falls from 31.1% in ’15 to 7.2% in ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 7.7% (excluding upside outlier of 189% in ’20). I am forecasting below the range at 6.0%.

These inputs land CHDN in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 2.4. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 9.8%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 5.3% is less than I seek in a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only five studies done in the past 90 days (my study and four outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 6.5%, 8.2%, 27.4, 15.5, and 30.1%. [Although a sample size of five studies is too small for a valid comparison] I am lower across the board. VL projects a future average annual P/E of 25.0, which is higher than MS (20.0) and much higher than me (17.0).

MS high / low EPS are $8.72 / $5.80 versus my $7.25 / $5.68 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. VL is highest at $9.35.

MS LSPF of $76.10 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 13.1: less than the above-stated 15.5. MS LSPF is 15.4% less than the default $5.80/share * 15.5 = $89.90, which results in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 3.1% greater than mine, however.

I believe MOS is robust in this study because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges [and MS averages]. In [anecdotal support is MS TAR (20.5%): 10.7% per year greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.8 and 3.2 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: somewhat overvalued (1.6 per M*). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is cheap at 0.67.

Qualitatively speaking, my only concern with this company includes low liquidity ratios and high Debt-to-Capital.

Per U/D, CHDN is a BUY under $93/share. BI TAR criterion is met 152.2 / ((14.57 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5 ~ $77 given forecast high price ~$152.

A 90-day free trial to BetterInvesting® may be secured here (also see link under “Pages” section at top right of this page).

P.S. The Kentucky Derby is coming to Prime Time in ’26. You heard it here first!

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YETI Stock Study (10-21-25)

Posted by on January 2, 2025 at 07:16 | Last modified: October 21, 2025 10:42

I recently did a stock study on YETI Holdings (YETI, $33.99). Previous studies are here, here, here, and here.

M* writes:

     > YETI Holdings Inc is a designer, marketer, and distributor of
     > premium products for the outdoor and recreation market sold under
     > the YETI brand. The company offers products including coolers and
     > equipment, drinkware, and other accessories. Its trademark products
     > include YETI Tundra, Hopper, YETI TANK, Rambler, Colster, Rambler
     > among others. The company distributes products through wholesale
     > channels and through direct-to-consumer, or DTC, channels.

Since 2018 when this medium-size company begins public trading, sales and earnings have grown at annualized rates of 15.9% and 20.2%, respectively. Lines are up and somewhat parallel due to EPS dips in ’19 and ’22 [latter due to operational snafus including recall of defective items and inflation-induced demand destruction per Value Line (VL)]. 5- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.00 (0.49) per BI website and VL gives an Earnings Predictability score of 75.

Since 2018, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while ranging from 7.3% in ’22 to 19.0% in ’21 with a last-5-year mean of 14.3%. Over the last six years, ROE also leads peer and industry averages despite falling from 57.3% in ’19 to 22.1% in ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 36.3%. Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages in falling from 91.9% (’18) to 18.9% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 25.4%.

Quick Ratio is 1.32 per M* and Interest Coverage is 241 per Barchart.com. M* also assigns a “Narrow” Economic Moat and gives a B grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives a B for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 1.0% forecast is near bottom of the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 3.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of four: 6.3%). Initial value will be ’24 EPS of $2.05/share rather than 2025 Q2 EPS of $2.10 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 25.0. Since 2018, high P/E ranges from 25.0 in ’24 to 80.6 in ’22 with a last-5-year mean of 44.2 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 31.6. I am at bottom of the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 13.0. Since 2018, low P/E ranges from 8.6 in ’20 to 27.0 in ’22 with a last-5-year mean of 19.0. I am forecasting below all but ’20.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $26.60 is default based on initial value given above. This is 21.7% less than the previous close and equal to the 52-week low.

These inputs land YETI in the BUY zone with a U/D ratio of 4.1. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 13.6%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 6.9% is less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only 21 studies (my study and 7 outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 5.4%, 6.6%, 25.0, and 15.5, respectively. I am equal to (high P/E) or lower across the board. VL’s projected average annual P/E of 15.0 is lower than MS (20.3) and lower than mine (19.0).

MS high / low EPS are $2.89 / $2.08 versus my $2.38 / $2.05 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. VL’s $4.00 soars above both.

MS LSPF of $26.30 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 12.6: less than the above-stated 15.5. MS LSPF is 18.4% less than the default $2.08/share * 15.5 = $32.24 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is also 1.1% less than mine.

I believe MOS is robust in this study because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges and MS averages. MS TAR (14.5%) is 0.9% per year greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 2.0 and 5.2 per Zacks and my projected P/E (low growth rate) with the latter extremely overvalued (M* is undervalued at 0.74). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is quite cheap at 0.51.

Per U/D, YETI is a BUY under $36. BI TAR criterion is met ~ 64.2 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5 = $32 given forecast high price ~$64 (no dividend).

Full disclosure: I currently own YETI shares.

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