Posted by Mark on December 29, 2014 at 05:47 | Last modified: May 4, 2015 09:13
This blog mini-series presents discussion on the sudden 2013 cease and desist exhibited by Callwriter.com.
I categorized this mini-seires under optionScam.com because I have often found a close association between trader education or trading system products and internet marketing. In the context of trading, “internet marketing” is synonymous with ripoff. Developing profitable trading systems is a laborious project involving hundreds to thousands of hours. Disproving a system can be equally difficult for those without the theoretical understanding to do so. Suckers looking to make a quick [thousand] buck[s] trading stocks, futures, or options are therefore prey to the internet marketers who float attractive products.
In the world of trading/investing, the free lunch is simply never to be had. Many nefarious entrepreneurs/companies advertise and market to make people believe otherwise.
Another thread about the mysterious disappearance of Callwriter.com is seen on The Option Guru website. We can even find a video on that site where we hear (not see) Mr. John Brasher himself! Maybe The Option Guru is a believer…
Some further searching turns up this page. Wait… that’s also The Option Guru! The content here is from 2009, though, so maybe he didn’t know enough about options to be a guru just yet. Under the “About Me” section I can see his name is Jeff. When I see the same people on different websites then I start to get suspicious.
Look closely back to that first website from two paragraphs above and you can see another product being advertised: “Trading Pro System.” I did an Internet search trying to determine if this was fraudulent and I found this website. When I see the same product being sold by multiple people (e.g. “Eric Holmlund,” “David Vallieres,” “The Option Guru), then I start thinking optionScam.com. It’s more like these are affiliates all cashing in on an internet marketing scheme just like many distributors sell Mary Kay cosmetics (except the latter is a real product with substantiated value).
Ultimately, the business theme always seems to be the same: who cares if the product can really make anybody money as long as it has marketable reason to exist and sustainable demand.
optionScam.com, folks! Sometimes it’s hard to nail down precisely but if it’s too good to be true…
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck…
If there’s reasonable doubt then come about!
Categories: optionScam.com | | Permalink
Posted by Mark on December 26, 2014 at 07:37 | Last modified: May 4, 2015 09:03
I’ve been reviewing the Twilight Zone-ish annals of a premium trading service that suddenly ceased to exist. Here is the reply to my response shown earlier:
> Mark:
>
> I have no disagreement with your post and comments
> regarding the “landscape” of snake oil salesmen
> etc. I myself am still owed quite a bit of money
> from the untimely and criminally negligent demise
> of MF Global.
>
> I have no problem with group members voicing
> (especially when asked) their opinions of various
> advisory services, trading rooms etc. There are
> certainly more than a fair amount of less than
> honorable folks out there who will willingly take
> your money and not bother to provide anything of
> value in exchange.
>
> Alex’s post seemed to be written by someone having
> no actual knowledge of what happened to Mr.
> Brasher. Regardless, he basically wished him dead.
> I thought that was WAYYYY over the top. I made no
> personal attack on Alex, nor did I in any way
> excuse what happened (or may have happened) with
> Mr. Brasher and his Callwriter service.
>
> Alex’s follow-up post in response to yours, which
> included personal attacks on me and insinuated
> that I (with Mr. Brasher as my leader) was somehow
> complicit in the demise of Callwriter, simply
> demonstrates that my original post responding to
> Alex’s was spot-on.
>
> I guess when one has no facts to support their
> position, or are actually called out to explain
> why they have chosen to wish death upon someone
> when they actually don’t know anything about the
> reasons for the unfortunate closure of Callwriter,
> they resort to personal attacks unfortunately.
>
> Best Regards.
I will wrap up this business drama in the next post.
Categories: optionScam.com | | Permalink
Posted by Mark on December 23, 2014 at 06:30 | Last modified: May 4, 2015 08:58
A smattering of subscribers seemed to be out money when Callwriter.com went offline. I continue with a forum thread addressing this occurrence that took place in March 2013.
In response to one trader who commented how unfair/mean it was to be angry with the service for disappearing without advanced notice, I chimed in:
> Given that the landscape of investing and trading
> is littered with so much in the way of snake oil,
> con-artistry, and other shenanigans, a person who
> walks away from paying customers with nary a word
> nor a refund deserves all the hatred, anger,
> disrespect, and prison time that s/he may get. I
> see no reason to be politically correct on
> something like this; Callwriter subscribers got
> had, plain and simple, and I don’t blame
> them for being angry about it. “Common decency”
> and “callous disrespect for others” have no place
> in this context.
>
> If you don’t believe the financial industry to
> be a hostile landscape then I suggest you start
> watching American Greed on CNBC. One way
> to lose money is by being scammed; increased
> awareness in this area can only make us better
> traders.
>
> Mark
> As one of the subscribers who got s……d, I
> think I can speak with a little authority. I
> actually met John. While he owes me a few
> months of subscription, I don’t think he owed
> me anything else. He seemed like a nice man.
> His wife was a nice lady. They had a family.
> It’s too bad. Life goes on. One man’s
> reputation is ruined.
>
> In a perfect world, I would have liked a
> refund, but that wasn’t forthcoming. This is
> opinion only, but I think he must have been
> in some serious financial distress. He was
> an attorney by profession. He had enough
> sense to not post on the website acknowledging
> problems. Not honorable, but it’s what a good
> attorney would have advised him to do.
>
> For his subscribers, the site was simply an
> information source. It crunched numbers and
> provided lists of candidates. Selection for
> trades was entirely up to the subscriber. The
> results were mine and not John’s. I miss the
> tool.
>
> Mark’s right, people are out to screw you.
> That’s why I choose to be a self-directed
> trader and investor. If this is the biggest
> loss I experience from the financial
> community, I will be well ahead of the pack.
Categories: optionScam.com | | Permalink
Posted by Mark on December 18, 2014 at 08:14 | Last modified: May 4, 2015 08:50
My last post introduced a forum thread discussing the sudden, unannounced 2013 closure of Callwriter.com. I generally think the financial landscape is littered with snake oil and I find it interesting when questionable/unethical things like this occur. I continue:
> Who would care for a trader who can NOT make a
> living on his own calls: let him RIP.
> Since you seem to be certain of the reason for
> his decision to close down his website, and go
> AWOL, perhaps you can clue us in as to how
> bad his calls were so the rest of us can
> potentially avoid making the same investing
> mistakes that caused him to RIP.
>
> If on the other hand, you don’t actually know
> the true facts behind his site closing down,
> and his reasons for his being “out of touch,”
> then I would humbly suggest that you are WAY
> past the point of common decency and your
> words and tone show a callous disregard for
> others.
> I was told that prepaid subscription money
> (in some cases, multi-year subscriptions)
> had been used to cover current month’s
> The source mentioned nothing about investing
> losses and I’m sorry if my previous comment
> was misinterpreted. I don’t know anything
> about his investing.
>
> The lack of subscriber growth and renewals
> meant they could no longer keep up with
> current expenses since subscribers’ money
> had already been spent. That’s the risk
> in a prepaid business model if you don’t
> separate cash you have received but not
> yet earned.
>
> I was also told that his health was fine (by
> someone who said he spoke to John a few days
> before the site went down) and that the ISP
> pulled the plug because they hadn’t been paid
> in months.
>
> I know of at least one other creditor that…
> Callwriter… owed money to, because they…
> asked me if I knew where he was. I do not…
> and I have had no contact with him since the
> site went down.
The plot thickens…
Categories: optionScam.com | | Permalink
Posted by Mark on December 15, 2014 at 08:02 | Last modified: May 4, 2015 08:48
Once upon a time, a man named John Brasher ran a service named Callwriter.com. As occasionally happens in the financial industry, the service was here one day and literally gone the next. I intercepted a forum thread back in March 2013 and today I begin presentation of select posts from that thread.
> Does anyone know what happened to Johnny Brasher and
> his site Callwriter.com? It disappeared a while ago now
> very quickly and all trace of him seems to have
> disappeared as well – what happened?
> It seems he had his house up for sale and there was a
> contact number (his wife I believe) for the ad. It was
> abrupt and I believe he left some people with more than
> month-long subscriptions high and dry.
> He left me high and dry. I had about six months left on
> the subscription. Don’t know what happened. It worked
> one day and the next the plug was pulled.
>
> Too bad, it was a really good service
> We spoke with someone close to John a couple of weeks
> after the site went down. We were told he didn’t have
> the money to keep the site up and his ISP pulled the
> plug after he was behind on paying them. We were told
> his health is fine, and we believe the decision to
> abandon the site was a business decision.
>
> In early 2012 we tried reaching John through several
> channels for a couple of months but he never
> responded. As his competitor, we’ve fielded dozens
> of calls from his former subscribers, none of whom
> were able to reach him. To our knowledge, no one got
> refunds on the unused portion of their subscriptions.
>
> [company name withheld]
This company, of course, stands to gain new
subscribers from Callwriter’s disappearance.
I will continue with this thread in the next post.
Categories: optionScam.com | | Permalink
Posted by Mark on December 12, 2014 at 05:48 | Last modified: May 2, 2015 12:56
In 2013, Jeffrey Mishlove, Ph.D. posted some responses to a very interesting survey question: “When is studying scientific research most useful for understanding financial markets?”
My last post detailed some of those responses. Here are two more:
> Have financial markets been consistent enough
> (knowing all the parts of a valid research study
> that must be there in the research), amidst how
> quickly the world has changed in the last 200 years,
> to even get the kind of research that would still
> be valid today?
> One can fiddle till doomsday with quantitative
> analyses of social reality, but since we are dealing
> with human creations and manipulations, I wouldn’t
> be inclined to believe very much in “scientific,
> empirical” research into financial markets.
To me, this question is about trading system development, which is something I consider a “pseudoscience.” I believe we can follow a methodology to do this in a valid way. I don’t believe we can ever get around some level of subjectivity, however, and that is why I use the prefix “pseudo.” What makes an acceptable trading system for one person (e.g. maximum net profits) may not be acceptable for someone else (e.g. maximal ratio of net profits to drawdown).
Legends abound regarding traders and institutions that have used algorithmic trading systems to earn millions and billions of dollars. The veneer of success and profitability is clear. At the very least, this is all good marketing and advertising. How much of those profits were retained, never to be lost, is something we will never know. If they were all lost and the firms went under then that is certainly something which may be discovered on a case-by-case basis. Most of us don’t have a research team available to help us out with that, though. I know I don’t.
One thing I like about option trading is that it gives me a margin of safety. I can start with a trading strategy that I think has potential and have a good chance to make money even if the strategy ends up being lousy. This certainly doesn’t mean I won’t lose, though, and when loss rears its ugly head I better have good risk management at the ready.
Categories: System Development, Wisdom | | Permalink
Posted by Mark on December 9, 2014 at 06:21 | Last modified: May 2, 2015 12:34
A couple years ago I stumbled across an interesting article by Jeffrey Mishlove, Ph.D. In the article, he presents some survey responses to the question about whether scientific understanding of the financial markets is possible.
While Mishlove does not present us with the optimistic responses, he does show us some of the more pessimistic ones:
> …The future never resembles the past and persistence in
> performance for any length of time in the investment industry
> is almost unheard of.
> I am surprised that you do not know that predicting financial
> markets can’t be done. It’s a “Fool’s Game”
> “Never…” there is no useful research. The minute any useful
> research emerged (to the general public as suggested by the
> question), it would immediately be incorporated into financial
> markets, rendering that research no longer useful.
> Most of us, including myself, are all about data, but, as
> others have said, no empirical results – back, realtime or
> front, regardless of the power applied – can be the basis for
> long-term successful trading. Sadly, not even actual results
> can form such a basis – as actuals are indistinguishable
> from random.
> Back testing is essential but most of the output is a
> curve fit illusion… Forward testing is of little use
> either; especially for longer term trading….I fear that
> studying scientific research is not a route to Eldorado.
> Investors should remember that at the end of the day,
> Candide gave up the attempt and resorted to peacefully
> cultivating his garden. Most would be traders would do
> well to do the same.
> Building models incorporating genuinely objective data
> into a probability based decision chain is an
> interesting pursuit. However, no one knows what happens
> next particularly within any specified time slice.
> Seeking a useful predictive model producing near term
> efficacy is an exercise in futility.
I will conclude with the next post.
Categories: Wisdom | | Permalink
Posted by Mark on December 4, 2014 at 06:52 | Last modified: May 1, 2015 09:23
Inspired by the writing of Louis Horkan Jr., today I will conclude by sharing more experience of a full-time trader.
I am just one [full-time trader] so please take this for what it’s worth.
I do not find trading to be a business where I make money all the time. I make money much of the time but on rare occasion I lose far more than I ever make in a short time periods. This makes me interested, motivated, and humble. I am interested to overcome the challenge of staying on top. I am motivated to grasp and manage my risk every day in order to prevent career-ending losses. I am humble enough as a result of my experience to know it never makes sense to claim victory in this pursuit. I am always one catastrophic loss away from being forced to return to Corporate America.
I disagree with Horkan Jr. because I do believe trading is about having nerves of steel. The “preconceived ideas” are formidable distractions that have good potential to cost me a lot of money if my nerves of steel don’t resist the illusory temptation. I have found it necessary to flex my nerves of steel and be mentally tough in the midst of stressful drawdown. When I’ve had catastrophic losses, those nerves of steel have prevented me from walking away forever with tail between my legs.
Finally, I find it noteworthy that the amount of time I spend doing the actual trading (e.g. entering, working, and executing) is just a fraction of my overall workday. I do many other activities that keep me engaged and, I hope, “sharp.” I spend a lot of time blogging. I spend time backtesting. I listen to trading calls and trading groups. I tweet with other traders. I read trading forums. I sometimes talk with other traders to share ideas and develop new strategies.
Thanks to Louis Horkan Jr. for a very thought-provoking article.
Categories: Wisdom | | Permalink
Posted by Mark on December 1, 2014 at 07:01 | Last modified: May 1, 2015 09:11
In the last post, I presented an excerpt from Louis Horkan Jr. seen on the About.com website a couple years ago. Today I will comment on that based on my personal experience.
Unlike Horkan Jr., I am not a day trader. What I do is better described as position trading. I prefer to check the markets once per day.
Having said that, I trade full-time for a living and I treat my work as I would any other business. I track my hours. I work a regular schedule. I work mainly from my home office as opposed to “anywhere [there is] an Internet connection.” No coffee shops unless I’m meeting another trader(s) after market hours to discuss strategy. No beaches (although I’m not in Florida or California). No trading at gyms.
Also pertaining to business is wardrobe. I work at home but I do not lounge around in shorts and flip flops. In the warmer months, I am usually barefoot! In the cooler months: sweats. I’ve heard a theory that when working routinely from home, a way to prevent losing personal “edge” is to dress the part of a professional. I think button-down shirts, slacks, and even a tie can psychologically benefit some people. In my case, I do not currently have a need to do so but I keep it in mind.
I agree that many people attempt trading as a business without an adequate understanding of capitalization, in particular. I strongly believe a full-time trader needs savings on which to live until profits are consistent enough to bear the burden of ongoing living expenses. When trading profits are required to pay the bills, pressure to perform can be substantial. This stress is enough to crack someone with inadequate experience who still has much to learn about the craft.
I will give some concluding thoughts in my next post.
Categories: Wisdom | | Permalink