BOOT Stock Study (10-13-26)

Posted by Mark on October 9, 2026 at 07:32 | Last modified: October 13, 2026 15:01

I recently studied Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT, $119.97). Previous stock studies are here and here.

M* writes:

     > Boot Barn Holdings Inc. operates specialty retail stores that sell
     > western and work boots and related apparel and accessories. The
     > Company operates retail locations throughout the U.S. and sells
     > its merchandise via the Internet. The Company operates a total
     > of approximately 539 stores in 49 states. All stores operated
     > under the Boot Barn name.

Over the past decade, this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 16.4% and 32.9%, respectively [FY ends Mar 31; calendar year from BI website and Value Line (VL) incremented by one to match]. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for EPS dips in ’22 and ’23. Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.12 (0.88), and VL gives an Earnings Predictability score of 50. Shares outstanding increase 14.1% (1.5% per year).

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer averages but trails the industry while increasing from 3.7% to 13.3% (’26) with a last-5-year mean of 12.8%. ROE trails peer and industry averages despite increasing from 8.0% to 17.4% (’26) with a last-5-year mean of 21.4% (shareholder equity consistently positive and increasing 24.8%/year). Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages while decreasing from 57.0% to 37.0% (’26) with a last-5-year mean of 34.7%.

Quick ratio is 0.39 and interest coverage 211 per M* who assigns no economic moat and a mediocre C trade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives a B+ rating for Financial Strength.

RightStock—a new tool on the BI website that I am tracking for informational purposes—gives a fitness score of 69 (“limited”) and opportunity score of 88 (“excellent”).

With regard to sales growth:

• YF gives YOY ACE 15.8% and 12.7% for ’27 and ’28, respectively (based on 16 analysts).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 15.7% and 12.3% for ’27 and ’28, respectively (5 analysts).
• VL projects 13.0% per year from ’26-’31.
• CFRA projects 15.8% YOY and 14.3% per year for ’27 and ’26-’28, respectively.
• M* offers a 2-year annualized ACE of 14.9%.

My 12.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch gives ACE 17.2% and 16.9% per year for ’26-’28 and ’26-’29 (based on 17 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com gives ACE 9.2% YOY and 13.1% per year for ’28 and ’27-’29 [5 / 5 / 1 analyst(s) for ’27 / ’28 / ’29].
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 16.9%.
• Finviz gives 5-year annualized ACE of 16.8% (2).
• LSEG has LTG at 16.9%.
• YF gives YOY ACE of 22.6% and 10.5% for ’27 and ’28, respectively (10).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 23.5% and 10.3% for ’27 and ’28 along with 5-year annualized 16.9% (5).
• VL projects 14.2% per year from ’26-’31.
• CFRA projects 22.7% YOY and 16.5% per year for ’27 and ’26-’28, respectively.

My 13.0% per year forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of five: 16.4%). Initial value is ’26 EPS of $7.35/share rather than 2027 Q1 EPS of $7.90 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 17.0. Over the past 10 years, high P/E ranges from 17.9 in ’23 to 34.4 in ’20 with last-5-year mean of 23.9 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 17.9. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 11.0. Over the past 10 years, low P/E ranges from 4.9 in ’20 to 16.2 in ’25 with a last-5-year mean of 12.0. I am forecasting lowest value since ’23.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $80.80 is default based on initial value from above: 32.6% less than previous close and 31.4% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land BOOT in the BUY zone with a U/D ratio of 3.3. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 15.6%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 11.2% is decent for a medium-size company. If a solid margin of safety (MOS) backs this study then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only 13 studies (too few for anything but anecdotal comparison) done in the past 90 days (my study and eight outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 13.0%, 13.0%, 20.9, and 11.9, respectively. I am equal on EPS growth and lower on the others. VL projects a future average P/E of 18.0 that is higher than MS (16.4) and higher than mine (14.0).

MS high / low EPS are $14.65 / $7.90 versus my $14.56 / $7.35 (per share). VL high EPS of $14.30 is slightly less.

MS LSPF of $94.80 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 12.0: just greater than the above-stated 11.9. MS LSPF is 0.8% greater than the default $7.90/share * 11.9 = $94.01. MS LSPF is also 17.3% greater than mine.

MOS is robust in the study because my inputs are equal to or less than most historical/analyst estimates/ranges. Supporting the MOS is MS TAR exceeding mine by 1.3% per year and my lower LSPF.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 0.78 and 1.0 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: fairly valued (0.82 per M*). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is slightly depressed at 0.85. “Quick and dirty” cash flow has stock undervalued by 53%. M* reports stock at a 25% discount.

Per U/D, BOOT is a BUY right now under $122/share. [247.5 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $123 meets the BetterInvesting® TAR criterion given forecast high price ~$248.

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