SSD Stock Study (10-17-26)
Posted by Mark on October 20, 2026 at 07:49 | Last modified: October 17, 2026 10:17I recently studied Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc. (SSD, $176.41).
M* writes:
> Simpson Manufacturing Co designs, manufactures, and markets
> systems and products to make buildings and structures safe and
> secure. It produces wood construction products, including
> connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners, and
> shearwalls, as well as concrete construction products such as
> adhesives, specialty chemicals, mechanical anchors, powder
> actuated tools, and fiber reinforcing materials. The company
> serves residential, industrial, commercial, and infrastructure
> construction, remodeling, and do-it-yourself markets, operating
> exclusively in the building products industry. It has three
> regional segments: North America, Europe, and Asia/Pacific.
> The majority of its revenue comes from wood products.
Over the past decade, this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 13.2% and 21.2%, respectively. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for EPS dip in ’24. Five-year EPS R^2 is 0.54 and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 80. Shares outstanding decrease 13.3% (1.6% per year).
Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 16.1% to 19.8% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 20.9%. ROE leads industry averages and is even with peers while increasing from 10.3% to 16.8% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 20.6% (shareholder equity consistently positive and increasing 9.9%/year). Debt-to-Capital is greater than peer and industry averages while increasing from zero to 19.3% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 19.9%.
Quick Ratio is 2.0 and Interest Coverage N/A per M* who assigns a “Narrow” Economic Moat and gives an A grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives a B++ rating for Financial Strength and reports interest coverage 25x.
RightStock—a new tool on the BI website that I am tracking for informational purposes—gives a fitness score of 75 (“moderate”) and opportunity score of 80 (“strong”).
With regard to sales growth:
- YF gives YOY ACE 3.8% and 3.9% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (based on 5 analysts).
- Zacks gives YOY ACE 3.7% and 4.5% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (2 analysts).
- VL projects 3.5% annualized growth from ’25-’30.
- CFRA projects 3.8% YOY and per year for ’26 and ’25-’27.
My 3.0% forecast is below the range.
With regard to EPS growth:
- MarketWatch gives ACE 9.6% and 9.4% per year for ’25-’27 and ’25-’28 (based on 7 analysts).
- Nasdaq.com gives ACE 6.6% YOY and 8.3% per year for ’27 and ’26-’28 [3 / 3 / 1 analyst(s) for ’26 / ’27 / ’28].
- Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 12.5%.
- Finviz gives 5-year annualized ACE of 8.8% (4).
- YF gives YOY ACE of 14.4% and 6.4% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (4).
- Zacks gives YOY ACE 12.8% and 6.5% for ’26 and ’27 (3).
- VL projects 5.5% annualized growth from ’25-’30.
- CFRA projects 10.7% YOY and 8.6% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
My 5.0% per year forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of only three: 8.9%). Initial value is ’25 EPS of $8.24/share rather than 2026 Q2 EPS of $9.15 (TTM).
My Forecast High P/E is 21.0. Over the past 10 years, high P/E ranges from 18.0 in ’22 to 31.8 in ’17 with last-5-year mean of 23.7 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 19.1. I am near bottom of the range (only ’22 is less).
My Forecast Low P/E is 14.0. Over the past 10 years, low P/E ranges from 9.7 in ’22 to 20.7 in ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 14.6. I am forecasting just below the latter.
My Low Stock Price Forecast of $115.40 is default based on initial value from above: 34.6% less than previous close and 26.2% less than the 52-week low.
Over the past 10 years, payout ratio falls from 37.6% to 14.0% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 14.2%. My 12.0% forecast is below the range.
These inputs land SSD in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 0.7. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 5.2%.
PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 1.5% is less than the risk-free rate (T-bills). If a solid margin of safety (MOS) backs this study then I can proceed based on TAR but even that is less than I seek in a medium-size company.
To assess MOS, I usually start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS) but only six other studies in the last 90 days makes for too small a sample size to bother.
My high EPS of $10.52 is just under VL’s $10.75. My forecast average P/E of 17.5 is less than VL’s 22.0.
Despite choosing a higher Forecast Low P/E than I usually would, MOS is robust in the study because my inputs are equal to or less than most historical/analyst estimates/ranges.
With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.4 and 3.7 per M* (’25) and my projected P/E, respectively: overvalued on average. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is fair at 1.01. “Quick and dirty” cash flow (including capex, which Google AI insists is correct) has stock undervalued by 25%. M* reports stock fairly valued.
Per U/D, SSD is a BUY under $141.50/share. Given forecast high price ~$221, [220.9 / ((14.27 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $113 meets the BetterInvesting® TAR criterion.
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