Understanding ROE (Part 6)

In Part 5, I discussed the misleading return on equity (ROE) for BKNG. Today I want to look at Starbucks (SBUX).

Recall with BKNG that ROE can be confusing because:

• Standard financial formulas crash when shareholder equity [the denominator; see (1) in Part 1] is negative. Some platforms will show “N/A,” while others might show a massive positive or negative percentage based on automated math calculation failing to account for the negative equity context.
• Negative equity suggests a company is near bankruptcy. BKNG, however, is highly profitable with ~$8B in annual free cash flow. The negative equity is a management decision rather than a sign of failure.
• BKNG has spent over $52B on share buybacks. Buybacks reduce shareholder equity artificially inflating (or breaking) ROE calculation making it impossible to use for comparison with companies employing different capital structures.

Google AI reports SBUX 2026 ROE of -17%. ROE is +16% for ’25—a sharp decline from the 12-month average of +32%. Before shifting to negative shareholder equity (’19), its high positive ROE peaks > 386% in ’18 due to high leverage.

Just to clarify, FinanceCharts.com (cited by Google AI) literally says:

      > The return on equity (roe) for Starbucks (SBUX) stock is 16.32% as of
      > Wednesday, April 22 2026. It’s worsened by -49.51% from its 12-month
      > average of 32.33%. The 5 year average return on equity (roe) is 43.04%.

Worsening by a negative value is the same as improving by the positive. 16.32% worsening by negative 49.51% means it has increased from a 12-month average of 16.32% – 49.51% = -33.19%: inconsistent with the above-stated +32.33%. I consider this a prime example of how broken some of these math algorithms can be when shareholder equity is negative.

Like BKNG, persistent negative equity is a result of deliberate capital allocation strategies. First, SBUX historically returns significant capital to shareholders via share buybacks often funded using debt. Second, SBUX maintains a streak of over 60 consecutive quarters of dividend payouts that further reduce shareholder equity. Finally, long-term debt has climbed to over $15B as the company invests in store expansions and its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround strategy.

Given the distortion in ROE, a stock analyst is advised to use other efficiency metrics. ROA (see Parts 3 and 4) is currently +4.3%. This measures profit against the total asset base rather than just shareholder equity. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC; see Part 2) is currently +6.8%. This is another more reliable metric for SBUX that accounts for both debt and equity.

For more details on financial health, Google AI suggests tracking SBUX ROE trends on Macrotrends or viewing quarterly growth performance on FinanceCharts.com. You can also read the latest valuation reports on Yahoo Finance or explore long-term return trends on Stock Analysis on Net (https://www.stock-analysis-on.net/).

I hope to conclude next time with one more case study.

Understanding ROE (Part 5)

I want to finish the mini-series by presenting some cases where return on equity (ROE) seems nonsensical and may be misinterpreted.

The first case is Booking Holdings (BKNG). Per Google AI, TTM ROE is 97% as of Apr 2026.

In my opinion, 97% ROE falls under the “too good to be true” category, but this is not unusual for BKNG. Pre-Pandemic (2019), ROE is a more “normal” but still strong 82%. In ’22, ROE is 110%, a sharp increase from previous years driven by recovery in travel demand and increased financial leverage. ROE fluctuates wildly from ’23–’25, often appearing highly positive (e.g. 156% in ’23).

ROE is a complex and potentially misleading metric for BKNG because it operates with negative shareholder equity. The impressive percentage turned up by some traditional screens is a mathematical quirk of having a negative denominator [recall (1) here]. BKNG reports shareholder equity of -$5.6B in ’25 largely driven by aggressive share buybacks and debt-financed capital allocation. The negative shareholder equity is not due to operational losses, though. In fact, BKNG remains highly profitable with $5.4B TTM net income.

Despite negative shareholder equity, some sites will report positive ROE due to a programming shortfall. It should be reported as a negative figure or “N/A.” Instead, sites like FinanceCharts.com use absolute values or specific internal logic to show a performance percentage when there really isn’t one. The positive percentage is a ghost metric.

Platforms such as Wisesheets.io report the same data as negative ROE or “N/A” following standard application of the formula with shareholder equity of -$5.6B (i.e. a shareholder deficit) at the end of 2025 divided into positive net income.

The reality is a highly profitable BKNG [$5.4B net income for ’25, as mentioned above] that has wiped out its equity book value through massive share buybacks rather than business losses. Negative equity is a deliberate management decision rather than a sign of operational failure.

For stock analysis when shareholder equity is negative, it can help to:

• Use Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) to see how well the company uses all its capital (equity and debt). BKNG recently reported an ROIC of 43.7%, which remains a valid and strongly positive number.
• Focus on cash flow metrics like Free Cash Flow (FCF) and FCF Yield to study how the company generates cash regardless of its accounting book value. BKNG grew FCF 15.1% in 2025.
• Evaluate solvency by interest coverage rather than Debt-to-Equity. 13.6 interest coverage indicates well-managed debt.

I will continue next time.

Understanding ROE (Part 4)

I left off Part 3 discussing some reasons it may be useful to study return on assets (ROA) as an alternative to return on equity (ROE). Today I will conclude by comparing the two metrics.

With regard to the math, ROA is:

                                Net Income * 100    
                              --------------------  
                              Average Total Assets             

Average Total Assets is the arithmetic mean between beginning and end of the year (or period). Note that ROE uses only shareholder equity in the denominator of its calculation.

ROA can mislead for companies with few physical assets (e.g. software or services) where high ROA may not fully reflect the company’s operational strength if driven by accounting artifacts or strategic underinvestment rather than true efficiency.

Accounting artifacts may include:

• Fully-depreciated [older] assets having a lower book value on the balance sheet thereby shrinking the denominator and artificially inflating ROA despite equipment being potentially inefficient or nearing its end.
• Ignoring off-balance-sheet assets like brand value, patents, or intellectual property that would otherwise lower ROA.
• A temporary spike in net income from non-recurring items (e.g. selling a subsidiary or a large asset write-down) that may make a company appear more efficient in a single period than it actually is.

Strategic underinvestment could be high ROA achieved by delaying necessary capital expenditures (e.g. not upgrading machinery or software) thereby creating a questionable short-term boost while hurting long-term competitiveness. Similarly, aggressive inventory reduction can temporarily lower total assets and raise ROA at the risk of facing stockouts and lost future sales—both signaling hidden operational fragility.

According to some, another ROA flaw is division of net income (truly belongs only to equity holders) by total assets (funded by both debt and equity). A possible fix would be to use ROIC (see Part 2) or to add back interest expense in the numerator.

While 15–20% ROE is often considered strong, a “good” ROA is typically 5–10% with < 1% indicating financial weakness.

ROA is preferred by operational managers, lenders and regulators, and acquisition analysts because it evaluates how effectively internal resources are deployed, because it assesses fundamental operational soundness and asset quality, and because it provides an apples-to-apples comparison across companies with different levels of debt, respectively.

For equity investors, ROE is preferred because it focuses directly on the return generated for shareholders despite being easily inflated by increased debt (including share buybacks).

At the risk of sounding redundant, ROA provides a grounded view of how well a company uses its entire resource base–—both debt and equity—–to generate profit.

ROA is a good metric to determine whether managers are making good use of the company’s infrastructure and technology; consistent, high ROA indicates sustainable competitive advantage.

In summary, ROE describes how much the shareholders are making whereas ROA describes how well the business is running.

Understanding ROE (Part 3)

Today I want to return to Part 1 and give a couple examples using DuPont analysis (equation [1]).

Net profit margin, the first term, is calculated as follows. Top line of an income statement is revenue (i.e. sales). Subtract from that expenses such as SG&A (selling, general, and administrative costs), COGS (cost of goods sold) and other line items to get net income before taxes (i.e. pre-tax profit). Every income statement labels things differently but a general example is Item 8 here. Subtract taxes from pre-tax profit to get net income (i.e. profit). Divide profit by revenue and multiply by 100% to get profit margin (as a percentage).

The importance of net profit margin is clear, then. All else being equal, increasing profit margin will proportionally increase ROE. For example, if ROE is 12% and net profit margin is 6%, then increasing net profit margin to 10% will increase ROE to 20%. The same can be said for the second [asset turnover ratio] and third [financial leverage] terms.

Studying asset turnover ratio helps us understand the efficiency of asset use to generate sales. Higher ratio is better and means the company is less asset intensive. Assets can include stores, acquisitions, products, and markets. The key point to investigate is whether company is investing in new assets to grow future sales.

The financial leverage ratio reflects how well the company is using debt (borrowed money) to finance asset purchase to grow sales and earnings. Assets should increase future sales and earnings more than the cost of borrowing (i.e. interest).

Studying return on assets (ROA) rather than ROE can sometimes be advantageous. This shifts the focus from shareholder returns to operational efficiency, debt usage, and asset management. ROE measures how much profit a company makes with shareholders’ capital whereas ROA indicates how effectively management uses debt and equity to generate profit.

One big advantage of ROA over ROE is independence from financial leverage (debt). As mentioned in the Part 1 penultimate paragraph, higher leverage can boost ROE. ROA is less affected by a company’s capital structure. High ROE can make a company look profitable in these cases whereas its ROA can still reveal its assets are not generating high returns.

Stated another way, high ROE with low ROA indicates that a company is using high leverage to boost returns, which is riskier. ROA is superior for evaluating management’s ability to manage assets regardless of how those assets are financed.

ROA is best for asset-heavy industries. This includes industries with substantial capital investments such as utilities, telecommunications, and manufacturing.

ROA (or ROAA: return on average assets) is preferred when studying the banking sector to measure asset utilization and operational efficiency. Anything over 1.00% (1.25%) may be considered good (excellent).

I will continue next time.

Understanding ROE (Part 2)

Today I will delve deeper into Return on Equity (ROE) at the risk of offending some readers with some higher-level math and accounting concepts.

As discussed in Part 1, ROE is a primary indicator of a company’s profitability and management efficiency by measuring dollars of profit generated per dollar of shareholders’ equity:

• High or rising ROE suggests management is efficiently using shareholder capital to generate earnings.
• Consistently high ROE (e.g. 15-20%+) often signifies a strong economic moat or superior business model.
• ROE may be used to determine a company’s sustainable growth rate by calculating the pace a company can grow internally generated profits.
• ROE allows investors to compare corporate performance within the same industry.

Beware of potentially “bad things” that can mislead by resulting in a high ROE. The third term of (1) in Part 1 has shareholders’ equity in the denominator. Since that equals assets minus liabilities, taking on excessive debt minimizes this term thereby boosting ROE. Share buybacks reduce shareholders’ equity resulting in higher ROE even when net income remains flat. Large asset write-downs also reduce shareholders’ equity potentially inflating future ROE. Years of negative earnings can deplete shareholders’ equity thereby resulting in artificially high ROE noticed when profitability is finally realized.

Follow these tips to use ROE effectively. First, compare a stock against industry average because ROE can vary dramatically (e.g. tech companies often have higher ROE than asset-heavy utilities). Second, ensure ROE is sustainable by looking at a 5-10-year average and trend [stable or increasing is good] rather than single quarter. Third, DuPont Analysis [(1) in Part 1] is good to see what is driving the return. Finally, cross-referencing with return on invested capital (ROIC) can help understand if high ROE represents operational strength or just cheap debt.

ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital

In the numerator, NOPAT is Net Operating Profit After Tax and represents profit a company would have without debt or excess cash. NOPAT = EBIT * (1 – tax rate) where EBIT [may be substituted by operating income] is earnings before interest and taxes. NOPAT strips out the effects of leverage or different financing structures.

In the denominator, Invested Capital may be calculated two ways. The financing approach sums up the sources of capital: Total Equity + Total Debt – Cash & Equivalents, which simplifies to Total Equity + Net Debt. Alternatively, the operating approach focuses on assets used in operations: Total Assets – NIBCL. Non-Interest Bearing Current Liabilities (NIBCL) usually includes accounts payable and accrued expenses.

By ignoring how the business is funded, ROIC enables comparison of business quality—the ability to generate high returns on capital over a long period protected by a competitive advantage not easily disrupted by rivals—even if one is debt-free and the other is highly leveraged.

Bonus math for today: compare ROIC to Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for a true sense of value creation. If ROIC is 12% and WACC is 5%, then the company is creating 7% of value for every dollar it touches.

In reality, doing this comparison is not so simple. I would really make enemies today if I presented the WACC equation with its six different inputs. Many of these inputs are subjective and it’s not uncommon to have analyst disagreement up to 1.5%. While that may not impact the just-mentioned “true sense of value” so much, it’s also used as the discount rate in discounted cash flow models where a 1% WACC difference can change a stock’s intrinsic [or “fair”] value by 10-20%.

Please take a breather! If not for you, then take it for me.

Understanding ROE (Part 1)

Return on Equity (ROE) is a metric I have long since understood to be an important part of stock analysis. Outlier cases are what bring me to write about it today and I will get to those at the end of the mini-series. I will start by defining ROE and discussing why it’s worth studying.

ROE is a financial ratio measuring a company’s profitability (efficiency) by calculating net income per dollar of shareholders’ equity. This breaks down to the triple product of net profit margin, asset turnover ratio, and financial leverage:

Net Income * 100       Sales              Assets                   Net Income * 100
----------------  *  ---------  *  ----------------------   =   ----------------------  (1)
     Sales             Assets       Shareholders' Equity         Shareholders' Equity

Another way to calculate ROE = earnings per share / book value per share.

That ends the heavy math for today’s post.

Reasons to analyze ROE include:

• To show how effectively management uses investors’ money to produce earnings: a high ROE often suggests competitive advantage (per Investopedia).
• To compare profitability between companies within the same industry (per TD Bank).
• To indicate potential growth as companies with consistently high ROE are able to reinvest profits for growth rather than having to take on more debt or issue more shares.
• To evaluate management quality as consistently high ROE is a sign of strong, efficient management (per SmartAsset).

When starting with an isolated look at ROE, over 15% is good and over 20% is exceptional. Look closer if it seems too good to be true. Also look closer if it’s [hugely] negative especially if profitability for the company seems acceptable.

After looking in isolation, evaluate ROE against peer and industry averages for more complete context. Net or pretax profit margin is another metric to compare with peers and the industry: comparatively higher is better.

As debt-to-equity can artificially inflate ROE, make sure to look at that too.

I will end here to keep my promise regarding the heavy math. Prepare for a longer post next time.

HSA Strategy (Part 2)

Today I continue with my discussion of Health Savings Accounts (HSA) before moving on to decide how I will invest mine.

This is for educational purposes only. Please see the full disclaimer in the second paragraph here.

As previously mentioned, HSA eligibility requirements start with high-deductible health [insurance] plan (HDHPs). These are characterized by lower monthly premiums and higher annual deductibles than traditional plans. For 2026, the IRS defines HDHPs as plans with a minimum deductible of $1,700 for individuals and $3,400 for families (more on this below). With HDHPs, one usually pays the full cost of most medical services out of pocket until the annual deductible is reached at which point copays or coinsurance apply. Monthly premiums are often less than standard PPOs or HMOs. In-network preventive services (e.g. annual physicals or vaccines) are usually covered 100% even before meeting the deductible.

HDHPs must also adhere to maximum out-of-pocket limits. For 2026, this is $8,500 ($17,000) for individuals (families). Anything higher is viewed by IRS as “too expensive” for the consumer and does not qualify for tax advantages of an HSA.

Some people are better suited to HDHPs. Mostly healthy individuals with few doctor visits aiming to save on monthly costs are ideal. HDHPs are not such a good fit for those with chronic conditions or people requiring frequent specialist visits and prescriptions since upfront costs can be high. HDHPs attract savers who want to use HSAs as long-term, tax-advantaged investment tools for future healthcare needs in addition to those with a financial cushion who can afford to pay greater deductibles in cases of emergency.

Perhaps because I’ve grown accustomed, I did not think $1,700 (individual) to be “high deductible.” It actually is. Employer-sponsored plans average $1,400 for an individual PPO deductible while many zero-deductible HMOs and high-tier PPOs also exist (copay-only for most services from day one). For individual Marketplace insurance, gold plan deductibles average ~$1,500 while platinum plans have zero or very low deductibles often averaging < $100.

Aside from the HDHP, other eligibility criteria for HSA contribution include:

• No other medical coverage (e.g. traditional PPO or a spouse’s non-HDHP) though dental and vision plans are allowed.
• Not enrolled in Medicare Part A or B.
• Not a dependent claimed on someone else’s tax return.

HSA parameters vary by year. For 2026 (2025), individual contribution limit is $4,400 ($4,300) and minimum HDHP deductible is $1,700 ($1,650). “Catch-up” contribution allowed for ages 55+ (on or before Dec 31) is additional $1,000 for both years.

I will continue next time.

HSA Strategy (Part 1)

As mentioned in the second paragraph here, today I will begin discussing Health Savings Accounts (HSA) with the goal being how to invest mine.

Here is a legal disclaimer for the current blog mini-series.* This is not professional advice and not intended to replace the advice of a tax advisor or attorney. HSA contributions, distributions, and eligibility are IRS-governed and subject to change. As the account holder, you are responsible for verifying eligibility, tracking transactions, and complying with IRS regulations. While some HSA funds are FDIC-insured, investment options are not bank-guaranteed and may lose value. Information provided here is [mostly] accurate at time of writing but subject to change based on new legislation or IRS guidance.

Given that disclaimer, let me define HSAs as tax-advantaged personal savings accounts for individuals enrolled in high-deductible health [insurance] plans (HDHP).

HSAs offer the triple tax advantage:

1. Tax-deductible contributions lower taxable income by corresponding amount.
2. Tax-free growth means interest or capital gains on investment are not taxed [unlike tax-deferred 401(k) earnings].
3. Tax-free withdrawals means proceeds used to pay for qualified medical expenses are not taxed.

Upon turning 65 years of age, HSA funds may be withdrawn for purposes other than qualified medical expenses but taxed as regular income [like the 401(k)]. If used for purposes other than qualified medical expenses prior to age 65, then HSA funds are taxed as regular income and subject to a 20% penalty.

Qualified medical expenses (always keep receipts as documentation) are rather extensive:

• Medical services including ambulance services, doctor visits, hospital stays, laboratory fees, surgery, and X-rays.
• Dental and vision services including braces, cleanings, contact lenses, dentures, eyeglasses, fillings, and LASIK.
• Prescriptions and OTC (no prescription required) products including acne treatment, insulin, and menstrual products.
• Equipment and supplies such as bandages, blood sugar test kits, breast pumps, crutches, hearing aids, and masks.
• Acupuncture, addiction treatment, chiropractic care, physical therapy, psychiatric care, and smoking cessation programs.
• Capital expenses to accommodate disabilities (e.g. grasp bars, railings, and ramps).
• Costs for [primarily] medical-care transportation and related travel (i.e. mileage, tolls, parking, bus/airfare).
• Doctor-recommended special education (e.g. tutoring for children with learning disabilities due to mental impairment).
• Medicare (ages 65+) premiums (A-D) [can no longer contribute once Medicare-enrolled but may spend existing balance].
• Premiums paid for COBRA [medical, dental, and vision] continuation coverage if job lost to a qualifying event.
• Premiums paid while receiving federal or state unemployment compensation.
• Premiums paid for qualified long-term care insurance subject to age-based caps on annual tax-free withdrawal amount.

I will continue next time.

* — In case my buddy Marc (with a “c”) is out there reading

Investing in T-bills (Part 17)

Higher initial/maintenance margin requirements is one reason why option traders may choose [taxable] T-bills [interest] over tax-exempt munis. Another reason to favor T-bills is the muni bond de minimis rule.

I want to clarify interest on zero-coupon T-bills as discussed in the third-to-last full paragraph of Part 16. These are taxed as if interest income were being received even though no income is actually received until the bond matures. Whether price appreciation to par or a semi-annual coupon payment, both are taxable interest as far as Uncle Sam is concerned.

As far as munis (issued by state, city, and local governments) go, interest is generally free from federal taxes and is:

• Usually free from state tax in the state of issuance.
• Not taxed by some states regardless of the state of issuance.
• Sometimes exempt from state tax at the time of issuance by that same state even when said state usually taxes them.

Unlike muni interest, bond price appreciation is usually taxed in accordance with the de minimis rule. At issue is whether price appreciation will be taxed as ordinary income or as capital gains. This is done as follows:

1. Multiply the face value by 0.25%.
2. Multiply that result by number of full years between bond purchase and maturity date to get de minimis discount.
3. Subtract de minimis discount from muni par value to get the minimum purchase price.
4. If actual purchase price is less (equal to or greater) than the minimum purchase price, price appreciation on the bond is subject to ordinary income (capital gains) tax rates.

For example, imagine $97.75 purchase of 10-year muni paying 4.00% APY with par value of $99 and six years until maturity.

De minimis discount = $99 x (0.25% / 100) x 6 = $1.485

Minimum purchase price = $99 – $1.485 = $97.515

Because $97.75 > $97.515, price appreciation will be taxed as capital gains. If held for over one year (one year or less), then capital gains tax rates are lower than (equal to) ordinary income tax rates.

The de minimis risk [of having to pay ordinary tax rates on price appreciation] is greater in rising interest rate environments. Since interest rates are inversely proportional to bond prices, increasing rates are associated with decreased bond prices.

One case where price appreciation may be tax-exempt is a zero-coupon municipal bond. These are always bought at a discount since they make no interest/coupon payments and price appreciation to par value is usually not taxed. The biggest caveat seems to be selling before the maturity date. In this instance, any price change realized on zero-coupon munis will be treated as a [short- or long-term depending on holding period] capital gain or loss.

Is that light at the end of the tunnel I see?

I will continue next time.

* — The Part 11 disclaimer applies: please consult a tax advisor for the definitive word on these matters.