NU Stock Study (10-23-26)

Posted by Mark on November 12, 2026 at 06:41 | Last modified: October 23, 2026 12:04

I recently did a stock study on Nu Holdings (NU, $14.73).

M* writes:

     > Nubank is a Brazilian financial technology firm that offers digital
     > banking services in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Founded in 2013,
     > it is best known for its credit cards and online savings accounts.
     > However, Nubank has expanded its offerings to cover consumer
     > loans, insurance, investments, and cryptocurrency through its
     > mobile app. Thanks to its success in disrupting Brazil’s
     > concentrated and fee-heavy banking sector, the company now
     > serves over 100 million customers across its three core markets.
     > Brazil provides more than 90% of its revenue.

Since 2023 (when most metrics turn positive), this large-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 37.4% and 66.1%, respectively. Lines are railroad tracks thus far. Shares outstanding increase 1.0% (0.5% per year).

Since 2023, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 27.3% to 36.4% (’25) with mean 32.5%. ROE leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 17.1% to 26.9% (’25) with mean 23.1% (shareholder equity consistently positive and increasing 32.8%/year). Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages with mean 11.5%.

Return on assets is 4.9% (1.5% or higher is generally regarded as “excellent”) as of 2026 Q2 and 4.6% for ’25 per M* (3.8% per VL) who assigns “Narrow” Economic Moat, “Exemplary” rating for Capital Allocation, but a C grade for Financial Health (per BI website). Value Line (VL) gives a B+ rating for Financial Strength.

RightStock—a new tool on the BI website that I am tracking for informational purposes—gives a fitness score of 65 (“limited”) and opportunity score of 99 (“excellent”).

With regard to sales growth:

• YF gives YOY ACE 44.5% and 23.9% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (based on 9 analysts).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 42.6% and 24.0% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (2 analysts).
• VL projects 21.5% per year from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 44.5% YOY and 33.8% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
• M* gives a 2-year annualized ACE of 32.1% and projects 24.1% from ’25-’30 in Equity Report.

My 15.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch gives ACE 35.5% and 33.5% per year for ’25-’27 and ’25-’28 (based on 22 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com gives ACE 34.3% and 26.2% per year for ’26-’28 and ’26-’29 [5 / 3 / 1 analyst(s) for ’26 / ’28 / ’29].
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 28.3%.
• Finviz gives 5-year annualized ACE of 36.1% (5).
• YF gives YOY ACE of 40.2% and 26.7% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (16).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 38.7% and 34.8% for ’26 and ’27 along with 5-year annualized 28.4% (5).
• VL projects 23.3% per year from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 53.2% YOY and 32.9% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
• M* gives a long-term ACE of 23.6% and projects 27.4% from ’25-’30 in Equity Report.

My 15.0% forecast is well below the long-term-estimate range (mean of six: 27.8%). Initial value is ’25 EPS of $0.58/share rather than 2026 Q2 $0.74 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 20.0. Since 2023, high P/E is 41.8, 40.1, and 30.5 with mean of 37.5 and mean average P/E of 27.3. I am well below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 14.0. Since 2023, low P/E is 16.0, 20.0, and 15.4 with mean of 17.1. I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $8.70 is default based on initial value from above: 40.9% less than previous close and 22.3% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land NU in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 2.5. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 15.0%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 12.0% is solid for a large-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) backs this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only 19 studies (too few for anything but anecdotal comparison) done in the past 90 days (my study and four other outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 23.0%, 19.2%, 29.4, and 16.8, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL projects a future average P/E of 15.0 that is much less than MS (23.1) and less than mine (17.5).

MS high / low EPS are $1.62 / $0.71 versus my $1.48 / $0.58 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower initial value and growth rate. VL (M*) high EPS of $1.65 ($1.95) exceeds both.

MS LSPF of $10.90 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 15.4: less than the above-stated 16.8. MS LSPF is 8.6% less than the default $0.71/share * 16.8 = $11.93 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 25.3% greater than mine, though.

MOS is robust in the study because my inputs are below/near most historical/analyst/MS estimates and ranges. Suggestive of MOS is MS TAR exceeding mine by 11.9% (too high, really) per year and my substantially lower LSPF.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 0.6 and 1.2 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: undervalued (0.07 per M* makes little sense). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is cheap at 0.73. M* reports stock at a 12% discount.

This is something of a unicorn in my SSG experience. While the brief data history [albeit not a young/small company] leaves me a bit uneasy, analyst coverage is rather extensive and all pretty much agree on strong growth prospects. CFRA is the only holdout I see with a “sell” rating (due primarily to valuation) in its quantitative report.

Per my SSG, NU is a U/D BUY under $13.90 share. Given forecast high price ~$30, [29.6 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $14.50 meets the BetterInvesting® TAR criterion.

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