SITE Stock Study (10-8-26)

Posted by Mark on September 22, 2026 at 07:44 | Last modified: October 8, 2026 12:48

I recently studied SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc. (SITE, $86.36).

M* writes:

     > SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc is a national full product
     > line wholesale distributor of landscape supplies in the
     > United States and has an established presence in
     > Canada. Its customers are mainly residential and
     > commercial landscape professionals who specialized in
     > the design, installation, and maintenance of lawns,
     > gardens, golf courses, and other outdoor spaces.

Since 2017, this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 13.5% and 13.0%, respectively. Lines are somewhat up, straight, and parallel except for EPS declines in ’23 and ’24. Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.71 (0.46), and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 60. Shares outstanding increase 6.9% (0.7% per year).

Since 2017, PTPM trails peer and industry averages while ranging from 3.6% in ’18 to 8.5% in ’21 with a last-5-year mean of 5.8%. ROE is less than peer and industry averages while falling from 25.1% to 8.8% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 13.7% (shareholder equity consistently positive and increasing at a blistering 30.7% annualized pace due, per Google AI, to use of retained earnings to issue stock for acquisitions). Debt-to-Capital is greater than peer and industry averages despite falling from 69.1% to 37.1% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 36.8%.

Quick Ratio is 1.2 (per macrotrends.net) and Interest Coverage 6.8 per Google AI. M* assigns no Economic Moat and a C grade for Financial Health (per BI website that probably contributes to a Manifest Quality score under 45). VL gives a B+ rating for Financial Strength.

RightStock—a new tool on the BI website that I am tracking for informational purposes—gives a fitness score of 49 (“poor fit”) citing 5-year EPS growth of zero (it’s actually 1.86%/year). I disagree. I think EPS gets ahead of itself during COVID-19 then normalizes. Fundamental headwinds do exist (e.g. flattish commercial construction due to persistently high interest rates) but operational efficiency across acquisitions should improve over time.

With regard to sales growth:

• YF gives YOY ACE 4.0% and 3.8% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (based on 12 analysts).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 4.3% and 3.7% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (4 analysts).
• VL projects 5.0% annualized growth from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 4.1% YOY and per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
• M* offers a 2-year ACE of 2.9%.

My 2.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch gives ACE 16.0% and 17.3% per year for ’25-’27 and ’25-’28, respectively (based on 14 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com gives ACE 23.4% YOY and 15.9% for ’27 and ’26-’28 [3 / 3 / 1 analyst(s) for ’26 / ’27 / ’28].
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 17.5%.
• Finviz gives 5-year annualized ACE of 12.6% (3).
• LSEG has LTG at 17.6%.
• YF gives YOY ACE of 5.7% and 20.2% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (8).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 16.6% and 23.4% for ’26 and ’27 along with 5-year annualized of 17.6% (3).
• VL projects 15.7% per year from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 25.5% YOY and 23.5% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.

My 10.0% per year forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of five: 16.2%). Initial value is ’25 EPS of $3.37/share rather than 2026 Q2 EPS of $3.65 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 32.0. Since 2017, high P/E falls from 59.9 to 45.7 (’25) with last-5-year mean of 47.0 (excluding ’24 upside outlier of 69.4) and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 36.9 (also excluding ’24 low P/E). I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 18.0. Over the past 10 years, low P/E ranges from 18.2 in ’22 to 30.6 in ’23 with a last-5-year mean of 26.8 (excluding ’24 upside outlier of 42.3). I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast of $60.70 is default based on initial value from above: 29.7% less than previous close and 26.0% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land SITE in the BUY zone with a U/D ratio of 3.4. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 15.0%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 9.5% is less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I usually start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment but only one other study has been done in the past 90 days.

VL has a future high EPS of $7.00/share and a future average P/E of 25.0. The former is greater than my $5.43/share and the latter is equal to mine.

I think MOS is robust in the study because my inputs are less than or equal to historical/analyst estimates and ranges.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.3 and 2.2 per Zacks and my projected P/E: fairly valued (49 per M* seems outrageous). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E]—even with a couple upside “outliers” excluded—is quite cheap at 0.64. “Quick and dirty” cash flow has stock undervalued by 53%. M* (quantitative) reports stock at a 26% discount.

One thing that has me a bit uneasy is the apparent discrepancy between sales and EPS estimates. Sales drives EPS, which drives stock price. Analysts are forecasting strong EPS but not sales. They may be anticipating further acquisitions to be accretive. Time will tell how that plays out.

Per U/D, SITE is a BUY right now under $89/share. Given forecast high price ~$174, [173.8 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $87 meets the BetterInvesting® TAR criterion.

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