APH Stock Study (10-1-26)

Posted by Mark on August 25, 2026 at 07:13 | Last modified: October 1, 2026 11:46

I recently did a stock study on Amphenol Corp. (APH, $84.30).

M* writes:

     > Amphenol is a global supplier of connectors, sensors, and
     > interconnect systems. It holds the second-largest connector
     > market share globally and sells into the automotive, broadband,
     > commercial air, industrial, IT and data communications, military,
     > mobile devices, and mobile networks end markets. Amphenol is
     > diversified geographically, with operations in 40 countries.

Over the past 10 years, this large-size company grows sales and earnings at annualized rates of 13.4% and 18.5%. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for sales dip in ’23 and EPS dips in ’17 and ’19. Five-year earnings R^2 is 0.85 and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 80. Shares outstanding increase 1.3% (0.1%/year).

Over the past 10 years, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 18.2% to 24.3% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 20.3%. ROE trails peer and industry averages despite increasing from 10.8% to 16.3% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 13.4% (shareholder equity consistently positive and growing a whopping 32.9% per year). Debt-to-capital is less than peer and industry averages despite increasing from 45.0% to 53.6% with a last-5-year mean of 42.4%.

Quick ratio is 1.3 and interest coverage 12.6 per M* who assigns “Wide” Economic Moat, gives an “Exemplary” rating for Capital Allocation, and a B grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives an A grade for Financial Strength.

RightStock—a new tool on the BI website that I will be tracking for informational purposes—gives a fitness score of 84 and opportunity score of 68.

With regard to sales growth:

• YF gives YOY ACE 53.9% and 18.5% for ’26 and ’27 (based on 17 analysts).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 53.5% and 17.7% for ’26 and ’27 (3 analysts).
• VL projects 21.0% per year from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 53.6% YOY and 33.7% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
• M* gives a 2-year ACE of 33.6% while projecting 21.0% per year from ’25-’30 in Equity Report.

My 17.0% per year forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch gives ACE 40.8% and 21.2% per year for ’25-’27 and ’25-’28, respectively (based on 24 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com gives ACE 22.9% YOY and per year for ’27 and ’26-’28 [5 / 5 / 1 analyst(s) for ’26 / ’27 / ’28].
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year CAGR of 19.3%.
• Finviz gives 5-year annualized ACE of 30.7% (2).
• LSEG has LTG at 26.4%.
• YF gives YOY ACE 59.8% and 23.1% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (19).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 59.2% and 22.9% for ’26 and ’27 along with 5-year annualized growth of 27.1% (5).
• VL projects 24.1% per year from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 59.9% YOY and 40.1% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
• M* gives long-term ACE of 26.4% and projects 26.5% in Equity Report.

My 19.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of seven: 25.8%). Initial value is ’25 EPS of $1.67/share rather than 2026 Q2 EPS of $2.00 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 28.0. Over the past decade, high P/E increases from 26.5 to 43.2 (’25) with last-5-year mean of 35.8 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 28.7. I am just below the latter.

My Forecast Low P/E is 21.0. Over the past decade, low P/E ranges from 16.1 in ’20 to 24.5 in ’24 (excluding upside outlier of 32.0 in ’17) with a last-5-year mean of 21.6. I am forecasting [aggressively] just below the latter.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $35.10 is default based on initial value from above: 58.4% less than previous close and 40.5% less than the 52-week low.

Over the past 10 years, payout ratio (PR) ranges from 22.3% in ’25 to 34.2% in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 27.2%. My 22.0% forecast is below the range.

These inputs land APH in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 0.6. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 6.6%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 3.9% is less than I seek for a large-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 289 studies done in the past 90 days (my study and 139 other outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 20.0%, 21.9%, 33.8, 21.6, and 27.2%, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL projects a future average P/E of 27.0 that is less than MS (27.7) and greater than mine (24.5).

MS high / low EPS are $6.34 / $2.99 versus my $3.99 / $1.67 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate and initial value (I would argue MS low EPS to be unreasonably high given a much lower 2026 Q2 TTM). VL (and M*) high EPS of $5.40 is in the middle.

MS LSPF of $66.00 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 22.1: greater than the above-stated 21.6. MS LSPF is 2.2% greater than the default $2.99/share * 21.6 = $64.58 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is also 88.0% greater than mine.

MOS is strong in the study because my inputs are near or below historical/analyst/MS EPS averages/ranges. Supporting the MOS is MS TAR exceeding mine by 10.7% per year (unreasonably high but see my note about that $2.99) and my lower LSPF.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.2 and 1.9 per Zacks and my projected P/E: fairly valued (M* has 1.5). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is extremely high at 1.47. “Quick and dirty” cash flow (including capex, which is debatable) has stock undervalued by 32%. M* reports stock undervalued by 15%.

Per U/D, APH is a BUY under $54/share. Given a forecast high price ~$112, [111.7 / ((14.07 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $57.50 meets the BetterInvesting® TAR criterion.

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