RGLD Stock Study (10-3-26)

Posted by Mark on September 3, 2026 at 07:03 | Last modified: October 4, 2026 09:53

I recently studied Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) with a closing price of $234.64. The previous stock study is here.

M* writes:

     > Royal Gold Inc enquires and manages precious metal royalties and
     > streams, with a focus on gold. The company operates by purchasing
     > a percentage of the metal produced from a mineral property for
     > an initial payment, without assuming responsibility of mining
     > operations. Similarly, precious metal streams are purchase
     > agreements with mine operators providing the right to purchase
     > all or a portion of one or more metals produced from a mine, in
     > exchange for an upfront deposit payment. Generally Royal Gold
     > does not conduct any work on the properties in which it holds
     > royalty and streaming assets. The company owns a portfolio of
     > producing, development, evaluation, and exploration royalties
     > and streams, and the majority of group revenue is generated
     > from Canada, Mexico, Chile, and the United States.

Over the past nine years, this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 9.9% and 20.2% [excluding ’18 from the entire study due to EPS loss that Google AI says is “a result of a large impairment charge on its interest in the Pascua-Lama project and tax reform impacts”]. Lines are mostly up and parallel with sales+EPS declines in ’19 and ’22. Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.45 (0.81) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 75. Shares outstanding increase 6.9% (0.7% per year).

Over the past nine years, PTPM is greater than peer and industry averages while increasing from 27.0% to 55.7% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 52.4%. ROE is roughly even with peers and the industry while increasing from 4.5% to 16.6% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 11.4% (shareholder equity consistently positive and increasing 13.8% per year). Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages while decreasing from 20.5% to 11.1% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 7.2%.

Quick Ratio is 2.6 and Interest Coverage 19 per M* who assigns a “Narrow” [quantitative] Economic Moat and gives a B grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives an A rating for Financial Strength.

RightStock—a new tool on the BI website that I will be tracking for informational purposes—gives a fitness score of 77 and opportunity score of 92.

With regard to sales growth:

• YF projects YOY 82.1% and 20.7% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (based on 5 analysts).
• VL projects 18.9% annualized growth from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 82.9% YOY and 48.4% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
• M* offers a 2-year ACE of 59.2% per year.

My 16.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch projects 23.7% YOY and 12.9% per year for ’27 and ’26-’28, respectively (based on 14 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com projects 13.7% YOY for ’27 (3 analysts).
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 12.9%.
• Finviz projects 5-year annualized growth of 21.9% (2).
• LSEG has LTG at 13.5%.
• YF projects YOY 42.2% and 23.3% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (11).
• Zacks projects YOY 39.9% and 13.7% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (3), along with 5-year annualized growth of 12.9%.
• VL projects 18.0% annualized growth from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 80.1% YOY and 47.2% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.

My 12.0% per year forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of five: 15.8%). Initial value is ’25 EPS of $6.69/share rather than 2026 Q2 EPS of $9.16 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 30.0. Over the past nine years, high P/E falls from 56.6 to 35.2 (’25) with last-5-year mean of 35.9 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 29.2. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 22.0. Over the past nine years, low P/E falls from 38.8 to 19.7 (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 22.5. I am forecasting just below the latter.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $147.20 is default based on initial value from above: 37.3% less than previous close and 12.8% less than the 52-week low.

Over the past nine years, payout ratio (PR) falls from 61.3% to 27.3% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 33.4%. My 25.0% forecast is below the range.

These inputs land RGLD in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 1.4. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 9.4%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 6.5% is less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 149 studies done in the past 90 days (my study and 47 other outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 16.0%, 15.0%, 30.0, 21.6, and 33.4%, respectively. I am higher on Forecast Low P/E. VL projects a future average P/E of 28.0 that is greater than MS (25.8) and greater than mine (26.0).

MS high / low EPS are $17.92 / $8.65 versus my $11.79 / $6.69 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower initial value. VL high EPS of $16.80 is in the middle.

MS LSPF of $171.50 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 19.8: less than the above-stated 21.6. MS LSPF is 8.2% less than the default $8.65/share * 21.6 = $186.84 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is still 16.5% greater than mine.

MOS is robust in the study mainly because I am discounting YTD growth. Supporting the MOS is MS TAR exceeding mine by 10.2% per year (too high, really) and my lower LSPF.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.8 and 1.9 per Zacks (and M*) and my projected P/E, respectively: fairly valued. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is cheap at 0.88. “Quick and dirty” cash flow [including capex, which Google AI insists is correct (quite an interesting deliberation)] has stock undervalued by 52%. M* reports stock overvalued by 17%.

One can make some qualitative arguments to incorporate YTD growth due to the current state of business. 2026 marks the first year of gold deliveries from Kansanshi and production streams from acquired Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper portfolios. It’s also the first full year of production from new operations like the Back River (Goose) royalty and Platreef. 2025 EPS includes non-recurring integration costs and transaction fees related to portfolio expansion that all vanish by 2026.

Nevertheless, if RGLD trades back near its 52-week low then all will be clear.

Per U/D, RGLD is a BUY under ~$198/share. Given forecast high price ~$354, [353.7 / ((14.07 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $183 meets the BetterInvesting® TAR criterion.

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