NBIX Stock Study (6-16-26)

Posted by Mark on July 31, 2026 at 07:12 | Last modified: June 16, 2026 07:37

I recently did a stock study on Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX, $159.51).

M* writes:

     > Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is a biopharmaceutical firm focused on
     > the research, development, and commercialization of treatments
     > for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological
     > disorders. Its portfolio includes therapies for conditions such
     > as tardive dyskinesia, chorea associated with Huntington’s disease,
     > classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia due to 21-hydroxylase
     > deficiency, and treatments for endometriosis and uterine fibroids.
     > The company also maintains a pipeline of drug candidates in
     > various stages of clinical and preclinical development across its
     > therapeutic areas, including small molecules, peptides, proteins,
     > antibodies, conjugates, and gene therapies. It derives revenue
     > from the sale of its pharmaceutical products.

Since 2018 (’16-’17 excluded from entire analysis due to negative EPS), this medium-size company grows sales and earnings 27.6% and 44.7% per year. Lines are mostly up, straight, and narrowing except for YOY EPS decline in ’21 [after spike in ’20 from “massive one-time accounting tax benefit (a valuation allowance release),” per Google AI]. Eight-year EPS R^2 is 0.64 but Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of only 35. Shares outstanding increase 7.4% (1.0%/year).

Since 2018, PTPM leads industry averages but trails peers despite increasing from 4.8% to 24.7% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 17.2%. ROE is comparable with peer and industry averages while increasing from 4.5% to 15.6% with a last-5-year mean of 11.2% (shareholder equity consistently positive with 31.4% CAGR). Debt-to-capital is less than peer and industry averages while falling from 44.7% to 11.3% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 16.0%.

Quick ratio is 2.5 and interest coverage N/A (no debt per VL) per M* who assigns “Wide” [quantitative] Economic Moat and an A grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives a B++ grade for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

• YF gives YOY ACE 31.7% and 19.6% for ’26 and ’27 (based on 19 analysts).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 29.5% and 15.3% for ’26 and ’27 (9 analysts).
• VL projects 11.8% per year from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 29.2% YOY and 25.7% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
• M* gives 2-year ACE of 22.2% per year.

My 11.0% per year forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch gives ACE 37.5% and 33.3% per year for ’25-’27 and ’25-’28, respectively (based on 32 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com gives YOY ACE 31.6% and 11.1% per year for ’27 and ’26-’28 (6 / 7 / 3 analysts for ’26 / ’27 / ’28).
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year CAGR of 42.7%.
• Finviz gives 5-year annualized ACE of 36.7% (6).
• YF gives YOY ACE 60.6% and 23.7% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (11).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 43.1% and 11.8% for ’26 and ’27 along with 5-year CAGR of 18.6% (7).
• VL projects 18.4% per year from ’25-’30.
• CFRA projects 39.9% YOY and 30.7% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27 along with 3-year CAGR of 8.0%.
• M* gives long-term ACE 50.0%.

My 15.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of five: 33.3%). Initial value is ’25 EPS of $4.67/share rather than 2026 Q1 EPS of $6.49 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 32.0. Since 2018, high P/E decreases from triple digits to 34.3 (’25) with last-5-year mean of 69.8 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 56.8. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 22.0. Over the past decade, low P/E decreases from triple digits to 18.0 (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 43.8. I am forecasting near bottom of the range [only ’20 (17.3) and ’25 are less].

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $102.70 is default based on initial value from above: 35.6% less than previous close and 15.9% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land NBIX in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 2.5. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 13.5%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 9.7% is less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 148 studies done in the past 90 days (my study and 32 outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 15.9%, 14.5%, 32.0, and 18.0, respectively. I am only lower on projected sales growth. VL projects a future average P/E of 15.0 that is less than MS (25.0) and much less than mine (27.0).

MS high / low EPS are $11.44 / $5.70 versus my $9.39 / $4.67 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower initial value. VL high EPS of $15.50 soars above both.

MS LSPF of $109.40 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 19.2: greater than the above-stated 18.0. MS LSPF is 6.6% greater than the default $5.70/share * 18.0 = $102.60 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is also 6.5% greater than mine.

MOS is moderate in the study because my inputs are near or below most historical/analyst/MS averages/ranges. MS TAR exceeding mine by 4.1% per year is supportive of MOS; VL forecast P/E is an exception (along with VL’s forecast high price).

With regard to valuation, PEG is 0.9 and 1.4 per Zacks and my projected P/E: fairly valued (M* has 1.0 for ’25). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is dirt cheap at 0.43. “Quick and Dirty” free cash flow method has stock undervalued by 27% (debatably factoring in capex). M* reports stock at a 5% premium while CFRA has it 71.6% undervalued.

Per U/D, NBIX would be a BUY under $152/share. Given a forecast high price ~$301, BetterInvesting® TAR criterion would be met [300.5 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $150 (no dividend).

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