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FTNT Stock Study (10-10-25)

Posted by on November 18, 2024 at 07:17 | Last modified: October 10, 2025 07:44

I recently did a stock study on Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) with a closing price of $87.19. Previous studies are here and here.

Value Line writes:

     > Fortinet, Inc. provides cyber security solutions to businesses
     > and government agencies. Its flagship solution, FortiGate,
     > includes integrated security and networking functions to protect
     > data, applications, users from network- and content-level
     > security threats across firewall, software defined networking
     > (SD-WAN), Wifi and switch (LAN Edge) and secure access edge
     > (SASE). It sells products and services to distributors.

Since 2018 (previous years excluded due to small EPS mathematically distorting growth rate), this medium-size company has grown sales and earnings at annualized rates of 23.5% and 36.2%, respectively. Lines are up, straight, and parallel except for an EPS dip in ’19. Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 95.

Since 2018, PTPM leads peers and trails the industry while increasing from 13.9% to 34.6% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 24.2%. Stock repurchases really take off since ’20 thereby driving ROE negative in ’22 and over 1000% in ’23. Repurchases raise Debt-to-Capital > 100% in ’22 and ’23 before returning to 40.0% in ’24 as shareholders’ deficit reverses to equity.

Quick Ratio is 1.21 and Interest Coverage is 119 per M* who gives a “Standard” rating for Capital Allocation, a Financial Health grade of B (per BI website). and assigns a “Wide” Economic Moat. VL grades the company B++ for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 11.0% forecast is at bottom of the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 7.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of seven: 11.0%). I will use ’24 EPS of $2.26/share as the initial value rather than 2025 Q2 $2.51 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 42.0. Since 2018, high P/E ranges from 44.5 in ’24 to 102 in ’21 with a last-5-year mean of 55.3 (excluding ’21) and last-5-year-mean average P/E of 43.3. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 24.0. Since 2018, low P/E ranges from 22.8 in ’18 to 40.2 in ’22 with a last-5-year-mean of 31.3. I am forecasting toward bottom of the range (only ’18 is less).

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $60.00 (arbitrary). Default ($54.20) based on initial value above seems unreasonably low at 37.1% less than the previous close and 22.7% less than the 52-week low. This is 30.4% and 14.4% less, respectively.

These inputs land FTNT in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 1.9. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 9.1%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 3.9% is much less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on the 9.1% total annualized return (TAR) instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 247 studies in the past 90 days (my study along with 91 outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 12.6%, 12.1%, 43.7, and 28.8, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL projects a future average annual P/E of 40.0 that is greater than MS (36.3) and greater than mine (33.0).

MS high / low EPS are $4.36 / $2.31 versus my $3.17 / $2.26 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. VL’s high EPS of $3.25 is just above mine.

MS Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $63.00 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 27.3: less than the above-stated 28.8. MS LSPF is 5.3% less than the default $2.31/share * 28.8 = $66.53 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 5.0% greater than mine, however.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 2.9 and 4.6 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively. This is extremely overvalued while M* shows undervalued at 0.88. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is slightly low at 0.79.

MOS is robust in the current study because my inputs are less than MS and near or less than respective analyst/historical ranges. MS TAR of 17.0% is 7.9% per year greater than mine.

Per U/D, FTNT is a BUY under $78/share. Given forecast high price ~$133, the BI TAR criterion [double in five years] is met under $66.50.

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BF.B Stock Study (10-9-25)

Posted by on November 15, 2024 at 07:34 | Last modified: October 9, 2025 11:06

I recently did a stock study on Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) with a closing price of $27.81. The previous study is here.

M* writes:

     > Brown-Forman is a US-based manufacturer of premium distilled
     > spirits that generates 71% of revenues in the whiskey
     > category, under well-known Tennessee whiskey brand Jack Daniel’s
     > and bourbon brands Woodford Reserve and Old Forester. It also
     > manufactures and distributes tequila, vodka, rum, gin, and premium
     > wines. The company generates 45% of sales from its home market,
     > while the bulk of international revenues come from Europe,
     > Australia, and Latin America. The Brown family controls over 50%
     > of the economic interests and a 67% voting power of the company.

Over the past nine years (FY ends Apr 30; references to year at BI and Value Line incremented to align), this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 4.0% and 3.7%, respectively (2016 excluded due to one-time sale of Southern Comfort and Tuaca brands that resulted in EPS up 63.3% YOY). Lines are somewhat up and parallel with sales dips in ’24 and ’25 and EPS dips in ’20, ’22, ’23, and ’25. Ten- (five-) year EPS R^2 is 0.58 (0.07) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 85.

Over the past nine years, PTPM trails peer and industry averages while declining from 31.2% to 27.2% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 28.4%. ROE also lags peer and industry averages while falling from 55.5% (’17) to 22.7% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 29.8%. Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages while declining from 61.1% (’17) to 40.6% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 45.8%.

Quick Ratio is 0.88 and Interest Coverage is 10.1 (21.1) per M* (VL). M* rates the company “Exemplary” for Capital Allocation, assigns a “Wide” Economic Moat, and gives a Financial Health grade of B (per BI website). VL grades the company B++ for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

I am being [very] conservative and forecasting zero growth.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 1.0% forecast is near bottom of the long-term-estimate range (mean of four: 3.8%). I will use 2026 Q1 EPS of $1.79/share (annualized) as the initial value rather than ’25 EPS of $1.84.

My Forecast High P/E is 27.0. Over the past nine years, high P/E ranges from 27.1 in ’25 to 47.9 in ’23 with a last-5-year mean of 39.9 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 34.3. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 12.0. Over the past nine years, low P/E ranges from 16.6 in ’25 to 37.0 in ’23 with a last-5-year mean of 28.7. I am forecasting well below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is the default $21.50 given initial value above. This is 22.7% less than the previous closing price and 15.7% less than the 52-week low.

Over the past nine years, Payout Ratio (PR) ranges from 37.5% in ’19 to 48.3% in ’23 (and ’25) with a last-5-year mean of 43.2%. I am forecasting below the range at 37.0%.

These inputs land BF.B in the BUY zone with a U/D ratio of 3.6. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 14.1%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 7.5% is less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on the 14.1% total annualized return (TAR) instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only 11 studies in the past 90 days (my study and 6 other outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 2.6%, 4.2%, 25.0, 16.0, and 42.8%, respectively. I am lower on all but Forecast High P/E (27.0). VL projects a future average annual P/E of 18.0 that is less than both MS (20.5) and mine (19.5).

MS high / low EPS are $2.24 / $1.79 versus my $1.88 / $1.79 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. VL’s high EPS of $2.85 soars above both.

MS Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $23.30 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 13.0: less than the above-stated 16.0. MS LSPF is 18.7% less than the default $1.79/share * 16.0 = $28.64 (INVALID on today’s date) resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 8.4% greater than mine, however.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 15.4 and 11.4 per my projected P/E and M*, respectively. I regard these as NMF due to small denominators (growth rate). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is extremely low at 0.45.

I think MOS is high because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges. My Forecast P/Es are below historical ranges. Earnings growth has been discounted to 1%. I’ve even lowballed the PR, which M* thinks is sustainable and reasonable long-term at 52%. Comparison with MS is not robust due to the small sample size but as anecdotal reference, MS TAR of 17.9% is 3.8% per year greater than mine: consistent with a solid MOS.

Despite doing business for over 150 years, Brown-Forman is still “undiscovered country” for the BI community although its brands probably are not. It’s a slow grower and that may be significant. However, it seems built to last with solid financial strength. Unless one thinks alcohol will be phased out in coming years, it may be worth a look. CFRA describes it as a high-quality stock with gross margins near 60% and Dividend Aristocrat status.

Per U/D, BF.B is a BUY under $28.80/share. Given a forecast high ~$51, the BI TAR criterion [doubling in five years] is met
~ 50.8 * ((1 – ((15.0 – 1.4) / 100)) ^ 5) = $24.50/share.

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LRN Stock Study (10-8-25)

Posted by on November 12, 2024 at 07:25 | Last modified: October 8, 2025 10:07

I recently did a stock study on Stride Inc. (LRN) with a closing price of $140.00. The previous study is here.

M* writes:

     > Stride Inc is an American online educational company. It
     > offers alternative programs to traditional on-campus schooling.
     > It also operates state-funded virtual charter schools around the
     > United States. The educational programs for K-12 students are
     > usually monitored by parents and provide virtual classroom
     > environments where teachers meet with students online, by phone,
     > or in-person. The company’s contractual agreements with various
     > school districts to offer its curriculum programs provide a
     > majority of the company’s revenue. The company lines of business
     > are Managed Public School Programs, Institutional, and Private
     > Pay Schools and Other.

Since 2018 (2016-7 excluded due to small base distorting EPS growth rates), this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 15.4% and 40.5%, respectively. Lines are up, straight, and parallel except for a sales+EPS dip in ’20 (probably due to COVID-19). Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 60.

Since 2018 (FY ends Jun 30), PTPM trails peer and industry averages while increasing from 2.9% to 15.9% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 10.7%. ROE leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 4.5% (’18) to 18.3% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 14.7%. Debt-to-Capital is lower than peer and industry averages despite increasing from 4.2% (’18) to 27.1% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 34.5%.

Quick Ratio is 5.1 and Interest Coverage is 37.5 per M* who assigns a “Narrow” [quantitative] Economic Moat and gives a B grade for Financial Health (per BI website). VL gives a Financial Strength grade of B++.

With regard to sales growth:

I am forecasting conservatively below the range at 7.0%.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 11.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of five: 18.0% per year). Initial value is ’25 EPS of $5.95/share.

My Forecast High P/E is 15.0. Since 2018, high P/E ranges from 15.6 in ’24 to 52.6 in ’20 with a last-5-year mean of 21.3 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 15.7. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 10.0. Since 2018, low P/E declines from 18.7 to 10.6 (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 10.1. I am forecasting near bottom of the range (only 7.6 in ’24 is lower).

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $63.30 is the 52-week low: 54.8% less than the previous closing price. Default based on initial value from above is $59.50, which is 57.5% less than previous close.

These inputs land LRN in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 0.1. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 1.5%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) is prohibitive for any size company at negative 2.2%. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on the total annualized return (TAR) of 1.5% but even that is well below the risk-free rate (T-bills).

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 74 studies (my study and 26 outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 10.0%, 15.9%, 21.3, and 12.0, respectively. I am lower across the board. VL’s projected average annual P/E of 18.0 is greater than MS (16.7) and much greater than mine (12.5).

MS high / low EPS are $12.74 / $6.02 versus my $10.03 / $5.95 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. Value Line comes in the middle at $11.10.

MS Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $81.70 implies Forecast Low P/E of 13.6: greater than the above-stated 12.0. MS LSPF is 13.1% greater than the default $6.02/share * 12.0 = $72.24 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is also 29.1% greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 0.8 and 1.9 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: fairly valued. M* gives 0.4 with a current P/E of 23.5 thereby implying a growth rate of 23.5 / 0.4 ~ 58.7% (possibly in the ballpark of CFRA’s ’26 ACE). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is overcooked at 1.48.

MOS is strong in the current study because my inputs are below MS and near or below respective analyst/historical ranges. Also consistent is a MS TAR that is 12.2% per year greater than my 1.5%.

This appears to be a high-quality company whose stock heeds the fundamentals. I find these issues very tough to buy. Were I allocating a portion of my portfolio to a momentum strategy, things might be different.

U/D has LRN a BUY under $85/share. Given a forecast high price just over $150, the stock needs to approach $75 (no dividend) in order to meet the BI TAR criterion (double in five years).

A 90-day free trial to BetterInvesting® may be secured here (also see link under “Pages” section at top right of this page).

* — Google AI reports: “while there is no fixed period for the ‘long-term growth’ (LTG)
       forecast on a London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) detailed stock report, it typically
       reflects an average estimate over a three- to five-year time frame. This forecast
       horizon can vary depending on the analyst or research firm providing the data.”

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CNC Stock Study (9-18-25)

Posted by on November 7, 2024 at 06:48 | Last modified: October 7, 2025 16:11

I recently did a stock study on Centene Corp. (CNC) with a closing price of $32.02. Previous studies are here and here.

M* writes:

     > Centene is a managed-care organization focused on government-
     > sponsored healthcare plans, including Medicaid, Medicare, and
     > the individual exchanges. Centene served 22 million medical
     > members as of Dec 2024, mostly in Medicaid (about 60% of
     > membership), the individual exchanges (about 20%), and
     > Medicare (about 5%). The company also has a military
     > contract and provides Medicare Part D pharmaceutical plans.

Over the past 10 years, the mega-size ( > $50B annual revenue) company has grown sales and earnings at annualized rates of 23.7% and 13.0%, respectively. Lines are somewhat up, straight, and parallel except for YOY EPS declines in ’18, ’20, ’21, and ’22. Ten- (Five-) year EPS R^2 is 0.65 (0.51), and Value Line gives an Earnings Predictability score of 90.

Over the past decade, PTPM trails peer and industry averages while falling from 3.1% (’15) to 2.6% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 2.0%. ROE also trails peer and industry averages while falling from 17.0% (’15) to 11.5% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 7.7%. Debt-to-Capital is about even with peer and industry averages while increasing from 36.1% (’15) to 42.4% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 42.9%.

Value Line gives a B+ (was B++ one year ago) grade for Financial Strength. Quick Ratio is 1.1 and Interest Coverage is 5.0 per M* who assigns no Economic Moat (was “Narrow” one year ago), “Standard” Capital Allocation, and writes: “despite the company’s deleveraging after acquisitions in recent years, a near-term profit shock has put more pressure on CNC’s balance sheet, which has fallen back into the weak category from sound previously.”

With regard to sales growth:

My 4.0% per year forecast is at bottom of the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

I am forecasting flat long-term earnings: just below the mean (0.5%) of six long-term estimates. Initial value is ’24 EPS of $6.31/share rather than 2025 Q2 EPS of $4.04 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 13.0. Over the past decade, high P/E falls from 28.7 in ’15 to 12.9 in ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 27.8 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 23.4. I am near bottom of the range (only ’24 is less).

My Forecast Low P/E is 5.0. Over the past decade, low P/E falls from 17.6 in ’15 to 8.7 in ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 19.1. I am forecasting below the range and current P/E of 7.9.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $24.80. Default low price of $31.50 is less than 2.0% below previous closing price. I am therefore replacing the $6.31/share mentioned above with 2024 EPS of $4.95/share for my low EPS forecast. The resultant $24.80 is 22.5% less than the previous closing price and 1.2% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land CNC in the BUY zone with a U/D ratio of 6.9. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 20.7%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 12.1% is pretty decent for a mega-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on the total annualized return (TAR) of 20.7% instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only 20 studies (my study and 9 outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E, are 4.7%, 6.3%, 14.9, and 7.5, respectively. I am lower across the board. Value Line’s projected average annual P/E of 10.0 is less than MS (11.2) and greater than mine (9.0).

MS high / low EPS are $7.92 / $5.25 versus my $6.31 / $4.95 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate (and probably low EPS being from ’24). Value Line’s $5.00 is less than both.

MS Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $26.70 implies Forecast Low P/E of 5.1: less than the above-stated 7.5. MS LSPF is 32.2% less than the default $5.25/share * 7.5 = $39.38 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is still 7.7% greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.3 per Zacks (undefined per my growth rate of zero): fairly valued. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is extremely low at 0.34.

MOS is robust because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges and MS averages. That is further supported by an MS TAR that is 8.9% per year greater than my 20.7%.

I approach CNC with hesitation because of the current uncertainty. Corporate guidance for ’25 has been withdrawn. M* details many challenges being faced with government aims to cut Medicare funding, its low-[star ratings] quality medical insurance offerings, and loss of Narrow moat. Value Line and M* both indicate weakening financial strength. Value Line writes CNC “urgently needs to focus on restoring its earnings trajectory.” I do feel my inputs are conservative resulting a solid MOS but…

Per U/D, CNC is a BUY under $39.10/share. BI TAR criterion is met under $41/share given a forecast high price of $82 (no dividend).

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SKX Stock Study (10-14-24)

Posted by on November 4, 2024 at 06:23 | Last modified: October 14, 2024 14:07

I recently did a stock study on Sketchers USA, Inc. (SKX) with a closing price of $67.56. This replaces the previous study that accidentally used default Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) rather than my manual override.

M* writes:

     > Skechers USA Inc is a lifestyle footwear company under the
     > Skechers GO brand name. Products offered include various
     > styles of women’s shoes, men’s shoes, girl’s shoes, boy’s
     > shoes, performance shoes, and work shoes. Allied products
     > offered are apparel, bags, eyewear, toys, and more. Its
     > products are available for sale at department and specialty
     > stores, athletic and independent retailers, boutiques, and
     > internet retailers. The company’s operating segments
     > includes Wholesale and Direct-to-Consumer. It generates
     > maximum revenue from the Wholesale segment.

Over the past 10 years, this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 13.0% and 12.4%, respectively. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for YOY sales+EPS decline in ’20 [pandemic] and additional YOY EPS dips in ’17 and ’22. 5-year and 10-year EPS R*2 of 0.21 and 0.34 [0.60 and 0.81 excluding ’20 and ’21], respectively, are poor and consistent with Value Line’s lackluster Earnings Predictability score of 40.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer averages but trails the industry in ranging from 7.0% in ’22 to 10.6% in ’15 with a last-5-year mean (excluding 3.4% in ’20) of 9.0%. ROE also leads peer averages while trailing the industry in ranging from 9.5% in ’17 (4.1% in ’20 excluded) to 26.0% in ’21 with a last-5-year mean of 16.5%. Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages with a last-5-year mean of 35.0%.

Value Line gives a B++ grade for Financial Strength and Interest Coverage of 33.1. M* reports Quick Ratio of 1.2 and assigns a “Narrow” Economic Moat [quantitative] to the company.

With regard to sales growth:

I am forecasting below the range (assuming the aforementioned is in error) at 9.0% per year.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 11.0% forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of five: 16.5%). Initial value is ’23 EPS of $3.49/share rather than 2024 Q2 EPS of $3.73 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 18.0. Over the past decade, high P/E decreases from 23.8 (’14) to 18.3 (’23) with a last-5-year mean (excluding 69.5 in ’20) of 17.7 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E (also excluding ’20 low P/E of 26.7) of 14.1. I am near bottom of the range (only ’21—probably downside outlier that could also be excluded—is less at 11.8).

My Forecast Low P/E is 9.0. Over the past decade (excluding 26.7 in ’20), low P/E ranges from 7.2 in ’21 to 19.6 in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 10.5. I am forecasting near bottom of the range [only ’21 is less (7.2)].

My LSPF is $45.60. Default ($31.40) based on initial value from above seems unreasonably low at 51.9% less than previous close and 31.1% less than the 52-week low. Instead, I am using the 52-week low itself: 32.5% less than the previous close.

These inputs land SKX in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 1.7. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 9.4%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 3.3% is less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 90 studies (my study and 28 outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 10.7%, 11.5%, 19.7, and 12.8, respectively. I am lower across the board. Value Line’s projected average annual P/E of 17.0 is higher than MS (16.3) and higher than mine (13.5).

MS high / low EPS are $6.25 / $3.63 versus my $5.88 / $3.49 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. Value Line’s high EPS of $7.10 is greater than both.

MS LSPF of $44.10 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 12.1: less than the above-stated 12.8. MS LSPF is 5.1% less than the default $3.63/share * 12.8 = $46.46 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is also 3.3% less than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 0.96 and 1.5 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: fairly valued. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is elevated at 1.28 due in part to not excluding the [potential] downside P/E outlier[s] mentioned above.

MOS is robust because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges and MS averages. Also supporting this conclusion is MS TAR (13.3%) being 3.9% per year greater than mine.

As flagged in an audit note, my Forecast High P/E exceeds the 5-year average P/E. Excluding ’20 (unusually high due to pandemic) but including ’21 (unusually low as stock price rebounds) is the cause, which also pushes Relative Value higher.

For a company with pretty good fundamentals, the biggest detriment is ~36% stock appreciation over the last year. The stock carries a Value Line Timeliness rank of 1, which is something I don’t often see.

Per U/D, SKX is a BUY < $60. BI TAR criterion is met ~ $53/share based on forecast high price ~ $106 (no dividend).

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MTN Stock Study (9-18-24)

Posted by on November 2, 2024 at 06:17 | Last modified: September 18, 2024 08:53

I recently did a stock study on Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) with a closing price of $182.40.

M* writes:

     > Vail Resorts Inc Bhd [sic] is a resorts and casinos company that
     > operates mountain resorts and ski areas. The company has three
     > business segments that include Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate.
     > The Mountain segment operates numerous ski resort properties that
     > offer a variety of winter and summer activities, such as skiing,
     > snowboarding, snowshoeing, hiking, and mountain biking. The
     > Lodging segment owns and operates hotels and condominiums.
     > The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and leases real estate,
     > typically near its other properties. The company generates the
     > vast majority of its revenue within the United States.

Over the last 10 years, the medium-size company grows sales and EPS at annualized rates of 8.0% and 14.9%, respectively. Lines are somewhat up, straight, and parallel except for YOY sales dips in ’20 and ’21 along with EPS declines in ’19, ’20, and ’23. Five- and 10-year EPS R^2 are 0.09 and 0.32, and Value Line only gives an Earnings Predictability score of 25.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while ranging from 3.5% in ’14 to 18.3% in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 12.2%. ROE trails peer and industry averages despite increasing from 3.1% (’14) to 20.2% (’23) with a last-5-year mean of 14.1%. Debt-to-Capital is lower than peer and industry averages despite increasing from 44.5% (’14) to 75.1% (’23) with a last-5-year mean of 64.9%.

Quick Ratio is 1.0, and Interest Coverage is 3.4 per M* who assigns a “Narrow” [Quantitative] Economic Moat. Value Line gives a B+ grade for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 2.0% per year forecast discounts the long-term estimate due to projections of short-term contraction.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 7.0% annualized forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of three: 10.9% per year). Initial value is ’23 EPS of $6.74/share rather than 2024 Q3 EPS of $7.56 (annualized).

My Forecast High P/E is 31.0. Excluding three triple-digit prints (’14, ’20, and ’21), high P/E over the past decade ranges from 31.9 in ’18 to 44.0 in ’22 with a last-5-year mean of 41.8 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 34.0 (excluding same three years for low P/E). I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 19.0. Excluding extremes of 83.7 (’14), 51.7 (’20), and 59.3 (’21), low P/E over the past decade ranges from 22.0 in ’18 to 30.0 in ’23 with a last-5-year mean of 26.2. I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $143.60 is default based on initial value given above. This is 21.3% less than the previous close and 13.0% less than the 52-week low.

Over the past decade, Payout Ratio (PR) ranges from 0% in ’21 to 218% in ’20 with a last-5-year mean of 122%. My 55.0% forecast is near bottom of the range (only ’21 is less).

These inputs land MTN in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 3.0. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 11.9%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 7.7% is less than I seek for a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I usually start by comparing my inputs with those of Member Sentiment. I will skip this because only four other studies have been done over the past 90 days.

Value Line’s future average annual P/E of 30.0 is greater than mine (25.0).

Value Line projects high EPS of $12.70/share versus my $9.45.

My LSPF exceeds the rule-of-thumb [which really isn’t] 20% discount to previous closing price.

MOS is robust because my inputs are near/below respective analyst/historical ranges.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 2.4 and 3.2 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: both high. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is low at 0.70 (with outlier P/E values excluded).

My chief area of concern for the company is liquidity. I’d like to see Interest Coverage higher, Debt-to-Capital lower, and PR—which I discounted substantially from 2023’s 118%—lower to alleviate concern of a future dividend cut.

Per U/D, MTN is a BUY under $180. BI TAR criterion is met: 293 * ((1 – (15.00 – 1.8) / 100) ^ 5) ~ $144/share given a forecast high price ~ $293.

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SWKS Stock Study (9-17-24)

Posted by on November 1, 2024 at 06:56 | Last modified: September 17, 2024 14:44

I recently did a stock study on Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) with a closing price of $97.25.

M* writes:

     > Skyworks Solutions produces semiconductors for wireless
     > handsets and other devices that are used to enable wireless
     > connectivity. Its main products include power amplifiers,
     > filters, switches, and integrated front-end modules that
     > support wireless transmissions. Skyworks’ customers are
     > mostly large smartphone manufacturers, but the firm also
     > has a growing presence in nonhandset applications such as
     > wireless routers, medical devices, and automobiles.

Over the last 10 years, this medium-size company grows sales and earnings at annualized rates of 7.6% and 9.8%, respectively. Lines are up, cyclical, and parallel with YOY EPS declines in ’18 and ’22 and sales+EPS declines in ’19, ’20, and ’23 (FY ends 9/30). Five- and 10-year EPS R^2 are 0.28 and 0.61, but Value Line gives an Earnings Predictability score of 75.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while ranging from 22.6% in ’23 to 36.5% in ’16 with a last-5-year mean of 27.2%. ROE leads peer averages but trails the industry while ranging from 16.6% in ’23 to 29.6% in ’21 with a last-5-year mean of 21.9%. Debt-to-Capital is much lower than peer and industry averages despite increasing from 0% (through ’19) to 19.9% (’23) with a last-5-year mean of 17.1%.

Quick Ratio is 3.3 and Interest Coverage is 23.8 per M*, who assigns an “Exemplary” rating for Capital Allocation and “Narrow” Economic Moat. Value Line gives a B++ grade for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

I am forecasting below the long-term estimate at 2.0% contraction per year.

With regard to EPS growth:

My forecast of 2.0% per year is less than all but one long-term estimate (mean of six: 7.2%). Initial value is ’23 EPS of $6.13/share rather than 2024 Q3 EPS of $4.85 (annualized). While possibly aggressive, I think the business cycle may be close to a nadir for this cyclical industry.

My Forecast High P/E is 19.0. Over the past decade, high P/E ranges from 17.1 in ’16 to 32.1 in ’20 with a last-5-year mean of 23.3 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 18.1. I am near bottom of the high P/E range (only ’16 is less).

My Forecast Low P/E is 10.0. Over the past decade, low P/E ranges from 9.8 in ’14 to 16.6 in ’18 with a last-5-year mean of 12.9. I am forecasting near bottom of the range (only ’14 is less).

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $68.00. Default ($61.30) based on initial value from above seems unreasonably low at 37.0% (28.0%) less than the previous close (52-week low). My (arbitrary) forecast is 30.0% and 20.0% less, respectively.

These inputs land SWKS in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 1.1. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 6.3%.

Over the past decade, Payout Ratio (PR) increases from 9.2% (’14) to 41.4% (’23) with a last-5-year mean of 32.8%. I am forecasting near bottom of the range at 10.0%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) is less than I seek for any size company at 0.9%. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 81 studies (my study and 46 other outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lesser of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 2.0%, 7.0%, 21.0, 12.9, and 31.2% respectively. I am lower across the board. Value Line projects an average annual P/E of 25.0 that is greater than MS (17.0) and much greater than mine (14.5).

MS high / low EPS are $7.44 / $5.32 versus my $6.77 / $6.13 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. Value Line’s $7.55 is just higher than both.

MS Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $74.80 implies Forecast Low P/E of 14.1: greater than the above-stated 12.9. MS LSPF is 9.0% greater than the default $5.32/share * 12.9 = $68.63 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is also 10.0% greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 4.1 and 9.8 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: both extremely high [due to low growth estimates]. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is slightly elevated at 1.1.

MOS is robust because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges and MS averages. This is further supported by an MS TAR (9.8%) that is 350 basis points greater than mine.

Like every cyclical company I have studied thus far, visual inspection is weak.

I chose to do this stock study regardless largely due to apparent inconsistency in the Value Line analysis. 5-year annualized high and low stock projections are impressive despite concomitant projection of long-term EPS contraction. Part of what allows this to happen is a future average annual P/E that is [inexplicably] higher than any seen from 2008 – 2023. Revenue is also projected to contract. How does it make sense for stock price to appreciate significaintly in the face of declining revenue and EPS over the next five years?

Per U/D, SWKS is a BUY < $83. Given a forecast high price of $128.60, 128.6 * (((1 – (15.0 – 0.9) / 100)) ^ 5) ~ $60/share meets the BI TAR criterion.

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ARW Stock Study (9-16-24)

Posted by on October 31, 2024 at 06:13 | Last modified: September 18, 2024 08:16

I recently did a stock study on Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) with a closing price of $124.35. The previous study is here.

M* writes:

     > Arrow Electronics Inc. is a provider of products, services, and
     > solutions to industrial and commercial users of electronic
     > components and enterprise computing solutions. It has one of the
     > world’s broadest portfolios of product offerings available from
     > electronic components and enterprise computing solutions suppliers,
     > coupled with a range of services, solutions, and software, the
     > company helps industrial and commercial customers introduce
     > products, reduce their time to market, and enhance their overall
     > competitiveness. The company has two business segments, the
     > components business and the enterprise computing solutions.

Over the last 10 years, this large-size company grows sales and EPS at annualized rates of 5.4% and 17.8%, respectively (’19 excluded from the full analysis due to negative EPS). Lines are somewhat up, cyclical, and parallel with YOY EPS decline in ’17 and sales+EPS declines in ’20 and ’23. Five- and 10-year EPS R^2 are 0.36 and 0.88, respectively, and Value Line gives an Earnings Predictability score of 60.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while ranging from 2.6% in ’17 and ’20 to 5.1% in ’22 with a last-5-year mean of 3.9%. ROE leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 11.3% (’14) to 15.5% (’23) with a last-5-year mean of 17.9%. Debt-to-Capital is higher than peer and industry averages while ranging from 30.7% in ’20 to 40.5% in ’22 with a last-5-year mean of 36.0%.

Quick Ratio is 0.98 and Interest Coverage 3.4 per M*. Value Line gives a B++ grade for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

I am discounting the long-term estimate to zero due to unanimous projection of short-term contraction.

With regard to EPS growth:

My forecast of flat growth is around middle of the range with two of three long-term estimates being negative (mean: +2.9%). I will use ’23 EPS of $15.84/share as high EPS (initial value) and 2024 Q2 EPS of $10.61 (annualized) as low EPS.

My Forecast High P/E is 9.0. Over the past decade, high P/E ranges from 6.3 in ’22 to 18.9 in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 9.5 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 7.6. I am near bottom of the high P/E range (only ’22 is less).

My Forecast Low P/E is 6.0. Over the past decade, low P/E ranges from 4.1 in ’22 to 15.3 in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 5.6. I am forecasting near bottom of the range [only ’22 and ’20 (5.3) are less].

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $98.00. Default based on low EPS from above seems unreasonably low at 48.8% (41.3%) less than the previous close (52-week high). My arbitrary forecast is 21.1% and 9.7% less, respectively.

These inputs land ARW in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 0.7. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 2.8%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) is -0.9%, which is a SELL for any size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on the total annualized return (TAR) of 2.8% instead but even that is less than the current yield on T-bills.

To assess MOS, I would normally start with Member Sentiment but only four other studies have been done in the past 90 days. This is too small a sample for comparison and an indication of “nothing to see here.”

MOS is robust because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges. My high EPS of $15.84/share is much lower than Value Line’s $30.00. Value Line also projects a higher future average annual P/E (8.0 versus my 7.5).

I think the picture painted here is one of a low-quality company. Visual inspection is weak (cyclical). Estimates for sales and EPS growth are minimal. Interest Coverage is low. Especially for a large-size company, long-term estimates are lacking (only three data sources). Default LSPF is in need of an override.

Value Line offers one caveat: “Arrow Electronics may be at the nadir of its business cycle.” If true, then things will get better going forward—at least to allow for a more complete SSG.

Per U/D, ARW is a BUY < $109. BI TAR criterion is met ~ $71/share based on forecast high price ~ $143 (no dividend).

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PCTY Stock Study (9-5-24)

Posted by on October 28, 2024 at 06:49 | Last modified: September 5, 2024 11:38

I recently did a stock study on Paylocity Holding Corp. (PCTY) with a closing price of $160.51.

M* writes:

     > Paylocity is a provider of payroll and human capital
     > management, or HCM, solutions servicing small- to midsize
     > clients in the United States. The company was founded in
     > 1997 and targets businesses with 10 to 5,000 employees and
     > services about 39,000 clients as of fiscal 2024. Alongside
     > core payroll services, Paylocity offers HCM solutions such
     > as time and attendance and recruiting software, as well
     > workplace collaboration and communication tools.

Since 2018 (’15-’17 excluded from full analysis due to respective EPS of -$0.28/share, -$0.08/share, and $0.12/share that would otherwise inflate historical growth rate), this medium-size company grows sales and earnings at annualized rates of 24.8% and 29.1%, respectively. Lines are up, straight, and parallel with no historical data audit flags. Interestingly, Value Line only gives an Earnings Predictability score of 45.

Since 2018 (FY ends 6/31), PTPM leads peer and industry averages by climbing from 4.4% to 19.8% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 12.8%. ROE leads peer and industry averages while ranging from 15.1% in ’21 to 18.3% in ’24 with a last-5-year mean of 16.8%. Debt-to-Capital is much lower than peer and industry averages despite increasing from 1.0% (’18) to 5.0% (’24) with a last-5-year mean of 13.8%.

Current and Quick Ratios are 1.13 and 0.13, respectively, per M* who assigns an “Exemplary” rating for Capital Allocation and “Narrow” Economic Moat. The difference surprises me for what should be an asset-light company. While 0.13 would be alarmingly low, Value Line gives an A grade for Financial Strength. As a check on M*, gurufocus.com reports 1.13 for both June ’24 current and quick ratios.

With regard to sales growth:

My 8.0% annualized forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

I cannot explain the discontinuity between CFRA’s ’24 and ’25/’26 ACE. No recent/ongoing acquisitions are mentioned.

My 9.0%/year forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of five: 14.6%). Initial value is 2024 EPS of $3.63/share.

My Forecast High P/E is 44.0. Since 2018, high P/E ranges from 63.5 in ’24 to 195 in ’22 with a last-5-year mean of 135 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 103. Most of these numbers are high enough for me to regard as NMF. I am just below the current P/E of 44.1.

My Forecast Low P/E is 32.0. Since 2018, low P/E ranges from 36.1 in ’24 to 94.4 in ’22 with a last-5-year mean of 70.4. Again, most of these numbers are high enough for me to regard as NMF. I am forecasting below the range and near the top of my comfort zone.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $116.20 is default based on initial value given above. This is 27.6% less than the previous close and 10.5% less than the 52-week low.

These inputs land PCTY in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 1.9. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 8.5%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) is less than I seek for a medium-size company at 5.8%. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only 54 studies (my study and 21 outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lesser of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 13.3%, 13.9%, 46.0, and 33.7, respectively. I am lower across the board. Value Line [strangely] offers no future average annual P/E.

MS high / low EPS are $6.66 / $3.44 versus my $5.59 / $3.63 (per share). My high EPS is less due to a lower growth rate. Value Line’s $5.60 is less than both [would be somewhat shocking except the latter is ’28 while we are projecting to ’29].

MS LSPF of $118.20 implies Forecast Low P/E of 34.4: greater than the above-stated 33.7. MS LSPF is 2.0% greater than the default $3.44/share * 33.7 = $115.93 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is also 1.7% greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 2.8 and 4.5 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: both overvalued. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is slightly low at 0.89 when I use the lowest low/high P/E’s of the last 5 years to calculate the denominator (anything else is NMF and results in the metric being [deceptively] lower).

MOS is robust because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges and MS averages. This is further supported by an MS TAR (17.5%) that is 900 basis points greater than mine.

Per U/D, PCTY is a BUY < $148. BI TAR criterion is met at $123/share based on forecast high price of $246 (no dividend).

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MYRG Stock Study (9-4-24)

Posted by on October 24, 2024 at 06:42 | Last modified: September 4, 2024 11:16

I recently did a stock study on MYR Group, Inc. (MYRG) with a closing price of $94.19. The previous study is here.

M* writes:

     > MYR Group Inc is a U.S.-based holding company that provides
     > specialty electrical construction services through its
     > subsidiaries. The company operates through two segments.
     > The transmission and distribution segment provides designing,
     > engineering, procurement, construction, upgrade, maintenance,
     > and repair services on transmission and distribution network
     > and substation facilities. The commercial and industrial
     > segment provides services such as the design, installation,
     > maintenance, and repair of commercial and industrial wiring,
     > installation of traffic networks, and the installation of
     > bridges. MYR Group generates the majority of its sales from
     > the United States and Canada.

Over the last 10 years, this medium-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 16.4% and 19.9%. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for EPS declines in ’15, ’16, and ’22. Five- and 10-year EPS R^2 are 0.83 and 0.84, respectively, and Value Line gives an Earnings Predictability score of 80.

Over the past decade, PTPM trails peer and industry averages while falling from from 6.1% (’14) to 3.4% (’23) with a last-5-year mean of 3.6%. ROE leads peer and industry averages while increasing from 11.3% (’14) to 14.4% (’23) with a last-5-year mean of 14.3%. Debt-to-Capital is much lower than peer and industry averages despite increasing from 0% (’14) to 10.2% (’23) with a last-5-year mean of 14.3%.

Quick Ratio is 1.3 and Interest Coverage is 13.2 per M* who assigns a “Narrow” (quantitative) economic moat. Value Line grades the company B++ for Financial Strength.

With regard to sales growth:

My 3.0% per year forecast discounts the long-term estimate based on lower short-term growth projections.

With regard to EPS growth:

My 9.0% per year forecast is below the long-term-estimate range (mean of three: 16.7%). Initial value is ’23 EPS of $5.40/share rather than TTM EPS of $2.92.

My Forecast High P/E is 17.0. Over the past decade, high P/E ranges from 16.8 in ’14 to 34.2 in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 22.2 and last-5-year-mean average P/E of 18.0 (excluding 2020 low P/E of 4.7). I am near bottom of the range [only ’14 and ’19 (16.9) are less].

My Forecast Low P/E is 13.0. Over the past decade, low P/E ranges from 11.2 in ’21 to 18.0 in ’17 (excluding 4.7 in ’20) with a last-5-year mean of 13.8 (excluding ’20). I am forecasting near bottom of the range [only ’21 and ’19 (11.9) are less].

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) of $70.20 is default based on initial value given above. This is 25.5% (24.1%) less than the previous close (52-week low).

These inputs land MYRG in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 2.0. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 8.4%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 5.8% is less than I seek in a medium-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors the study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on only 16 studies (my study and 7 other outliers excluded) over the past 90 days, averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 12.0%, 15.1%, 22.2, and 12.0, respectively. I am lower on all but the latter (13.0). Value Line’s projected average annual P/E of 18.0 is higher than MS (17.1) and higher than mine (15.0).

MS high / low EPS are $8.12 / $4.88 versus my $8.31 / $5.40 (per share). MS range is lower due to a lower initial value. Value Line’s $13.55 high EPS soars above both.

MS LSPF of $73.10 implies a 15.0 Forecast Low P/E: greater than the above-stated 12.0. MS LSPF is 24.8% greater than than the default $4.88/share * 12.0 = $58.56, which results in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is also 4.1% greater than mine.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 3.3 per my projected P/E. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is also quite high at 1.79. Both are influenced by a sudden drop in TTM EPS.

MOS is robust because my inputs are near or below respective analyst/historical ranges. MS sample size is too small for a valid comparison, but anecdotally MS TAR of 9.2% is 0.8%/year greater than mine.

Per U/D, MYRG is a BUY under $88. BI TAR criterion is met ~ $71/share based on forecast high price ~ $142 (no dividend).

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