TGLS Stock Study (1-16-26)

Posted by Mark on June 16, 2025 at 07:45 | Last modified: January 16, 2026 12:34

I recently studied Tecnoglass, Inc. (TGLS, $53.82).

M* writes:

     > Tecnoglass Inc is a manufacturer of hi-spec architectural glass
     > and windows for residential and commercial construction industries,
     > operating through its direct and indirect subsidiaries. Its product
     > offerings include tempered glass, laminated glass, thermo-acoustic
     > glass, sliding windows, projecting windows, guillotine windows,
     > sliding doors, loating facades, automatic doors, bathroom dividers,
     > and commercial display windows, among others. The company has
     > one operating segment, Architectural Glass and Windows, which is
     > also its reporting segment. Geographically, the company generates
     > maximum revenue from its customers in the United States,
     > followed by Colombia, Panama, and other regions.

Since 2016, this small-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 15.5% and 44.0%, respectively. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for sales dip in ’20, EPS decline (large) in ’17, and EPS dips in ’20 and ’24. Shares outstanding increase 55.1% (5.6% per year). Five- (10-) year EPS R^2 is 0.79 (0.70) and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 50.

I don’t love that 2016 EPS is not eclipsed until 2021. Looking at the 2017 10-K doesn’t help me understand the severe decline. Google AI does not explain the decline either (nor why it takes five years to rebound):

     > The ES Windows acquisition by Tecnoglass (TGLS) was effective in
     > the fourth quarter of 2016, and the financial results were
     > retroactively adjusted to show the impact on EPS from that point
     > forward. The company adjusted its full year 2016 and 2015 financial
     > results as if the acquisition had occurred on January 1, 2015.

Since 2016, PTPM trails peer and industry averages despite climbing from 12.9% to 25.3% (’24) with last-5-year mean of 23.7%. ROE leads peer and industry averages while ranging from 4.6% in ’17 to 49.9% in ’22 with last-5-year mean of 31.0%. Debt-to-Capital exceeds peers and the industry despite falling from 63.7% to 14.8% (’24) with last-5-year mean of 33.5%.

Quick Ratio is 1.2 and Interest Coverage 72 per M* who assigns “Narrow” [quantitative] Economic Moat and gives a B grade for Financial Health (per BetterInvesting website). VL rates the company B++ for Financial Strength (and reports Interest Coverage over 25).

With regard to sales growth:

• YF gives YOY ACE 10.0% and 10.7% for ’25 and ’26, respectively (based on 5 analysts).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 10.1% and 11.0% for ’25 and ’26, respectively (3 analysts).
• VL projects 9.5% annualized growth from ’24-’29.
• CFRA (quantitative report) offers no annualized ACE (tracking).

My 9.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch projects 6.8% and 10.5% per year for ’24-’26 and ’24-’27, respectively (based on 4 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com reports ACE 11.9% and 8.2% per year for ’25-’27 and ’25-’28 [4 / 2 / 1 analyst(s) for ’25 / ’27 / ’28].
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 22.0%.
• Finviz gives ACE 5-year annualized growth of 8.5% (4).
• YF gives YOY ACE 4.0% and 9.0% for ’25 and ’26, respectively (5).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 3.3% and 9.6% for ’25 and ’26 along with 5-year annualized growth of 22.0% (4).
• VL projects 9.1% annualized growth from ’24-’29.
• CFRA (quantitative report) offers no annualized ACE (tracking).

My 8.0% forecast is below the long-term estimate range [mean of four is 15.4% and mean of three is 13.2% in case the 22.0% represents data duplication (not sure why it would since they are completely different sources but I find it suspicious)]. Initial value is ’24 EPS of $3.43/share rather than 2025 Q3 EPS of $3.85 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 14.0. Since 2016, high P/E ranges from 10.0 in ’22 to 77.1 in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 17.9 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 12.2. I am near bottom of the 9-year range (only ’22 is less).

My Forecast Low P/E is 4.0. Since 2016, low P/E ranges from 4.1 in ’20 to 34.4 in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 6.6. I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $37.00. Default ($13.70) based on initial value given above seems unreasonably low at 74.5% less than previous close and 69.1% less than 52-week low. My (arbitrary) selection is 31.3% and 16.5% less, respectively [and effectively raises Forecast Low P/E to 10.8].

Since 2016, Payout Ratio (PR) ranges from 8.6% in ’22 to 331% in ’17 with a last-5-year mean of 12.7%. I am forecasting below the range at 8.0%.

These inputs land TGLS in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 1.0. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 6.1%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of -2.5% is unthinkable for an investment candidate. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR albeit still well below what I seek in a small-size company.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 64 studies in the past 90 days (my study and 32 outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 10.9%, 10.6%, 17.9, 6.9, and 12.7% respectively. I am lower across the board. VL projects a future average annual P/E of 14.0 that is greater than MS (12.9) and greater than mine (9.0).

MS high / low EPS are $6.27 / $3.85 versus my $5.04 / $3.43 (per share). My high EPS is less due mainly to a lower growth rate. VL high EPS of $5.30 is in the middle.

MS LSPF of $34.40 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 8.9 versus the above-stated 6.9. MS LSPF is 29.5% greater than the default $3.85/share * 6.9 = $26.57 resulting in more aggressive zoning. MS LSPF is 7.0% less than mine, however.

MOS is robust in the study because my inputs are near or below historical/analyst/MS averages. Also supporting this assessment is MS TAR exceeding mine by 10.8% per year [perhaps too much].

With regard to valuation, PEG is 0.6 and 1.6 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively [M* has 0.23, which I think is shockingly low]. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is elevated at 1.2. “Quick and dirty DCF” says overvalued by 41% due overwhelmingly to projected CapEx.

This stock is nowhere near a buy point for me right now. I don’t pay attention to qualitative concerns like “allegations linking senior management to cartel-related activity [that] influence investor sentiment” (per VL). Quantitatively, it’s still up over 700% since 2020 despite selling off over the past year.

Per U/D, TGLS is a BUY under $45.40/share. BI TAR criterion would be met [70.6 / ((14.27 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $36 given a forecast high price ~$71.

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