ACMR Stock Study (3-10-26)
Posted by Mark on September 11, 2025 at 06:46 | Last modified: March 10, 2026 10:39I recently did a stock study on ACM Research Inc. (ACMR, $46.69). The previous study is here.
M* writes:
> ACM Research Inc supplies capital equipment developed for the
> semiconductor industry. The company focuses on developing
> differentiated process solutions that enable effective particle
> removal, uniform material deposition, and reliable process
> control for the fabricators of integrated circuits. Its product
> offerings include wet-cleaning, plating, furnace, PECVD, track,
> and other front-end processing equipment. Additionally, it
> develops, manufactures, and sells a range of packaging equipment
> to wafer assembly and packaging customers. Geographically, the
> company generates maximum revenue from its customers in
> Mainland China, and the rest from other regions.
Since 2018, this small-size company grows sales and EPS at annualized rates of 45.6% and 40.6%, respectively. Lines are mostly up, straight, and parallel except for EPS dips in ’20 and ’25. Five-year EPS R^2 is 0.82 but Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 60. Shares outstanding increase 25.3% (3.3%/year).
Since 2018, PTPM leads peer averages but trails the industry despite increasing from 9.9% to 15.0% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 18.2%. ROE leads peer averages and trails the industry while decreasing from 12.20% to 6.2% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 10.4%. Debt-to-Capital is less than industry averages but greater than peers while ranging from 5.5% in ’21 to 26.2% in ’20 with a last-5-year mean of 12.3%.
Quick Ratio is 2.3 and Interest Coverage 20.4 per M* who assigns “Narrow” [quantitative] Economic Moat and a C grade for Financial Health (per BetterInvesting® website). VL rates the company B for Financial Strength and has Performance and Technical ranks suspended.
With regard to sales growth:
- YF gives YOY ACE 26.9% and 23.1% for ’26 and ’27 (based on 7 analysts).
- Zacks gives YOY ACE 26.0% and 23.7% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (3 analysts).
- CFRA gives ACE 26.9% YOY and 25.0% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively (7).
- M* gives a 2-year ACE of 21.8%.
I am forecasting well below the short-term range at 12.0% (no long-term estimates available).
With regard to EPS growth:
- MarketWatch projects 24.3% and 23.3% per year for ’25-’27 and ’25-’28, respectively (based on 7 analysts).
- Finviz gives ACE 5-year annualized 32.4% (2 analysts).
- YF gives YOY ACE 11.0% and 27.6% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (3).
- Zacks gives YOY ACE 5.6% and 41.2% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (1).
- VL gives ACE contraction of 15.6% per year from 2024 to 2026 / 2027 (1).
- CFRA gives ACE 30.7% YOY and 29.0% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively (3).
Analyst estimates are scant with just one long-term available. My 8.0% forecast is well below the range excepting VL [projects contraction]. Initial value is ’25 EPS of $1.37/share (down 11% YOY).
My Forecast High P/E is 32.0. Since 2018, high P/E ranges from 18.2 in ’23 to 83.7 in ’21 (128 in ’20 excluded) with a last-5-year mean of 41.7 and last-5-year-mean average P/E of 25.5 (’21 low P/E also excluded). I am below the last-5-year mean but above the 7-year median (27.5).
My Forecast Low P/E is 8.0. Since 2018, low P/E ranges from 7.5 in ’23 to 17.9 in ’20 with a last-5-year mean of 9.2. I am forecasting near bottom of the range (only ’23 is less).
My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $16.80. Default ($11.00) given initial value from above seems unreasonably low at 76.4% less than previous close and 34.5% less than 52-week low. My selection is the 52-week low itself: still 64.2% less than the previous close (and results in an effective Forecast Low P/E of 12.3).
These inputs land ACMR in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 0.6. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 6.6%.
PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of NEGATIVE 2.9% is unthinkable as an investment candidate. If a healthy MOS anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead (still lower than I seek in a small-size company).
To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 90 studies done in the past 90 days (my study and 30 outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, and Forecast Low P/E are 13.0%, 14.0%, 29.2, and 12.1. I am lower on growth rates but higher on P/E range.
MS high / low EPS are $3.17 / $1.60 vs. my $2.01 / $1.37 (per share). My high EPS is less due mainly to a lower growth rate.
MS LSPF of $18.80 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 11.8: less than the above-stated 12.1. MS LSPF is 2.9% less than the default $1.60/share * 12.1 = $19.36 that results in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 11.9% greater than mine, however.
MOS is moderate in the study. My growth rates are lower than analyst/MS ranges (except VL EPS). My LSPF is lower and MS TAR exceeds mine by 5.3% per year. I elevate forecast P/E range to get a valid study, though.
Regarding valuation, PEG is 6.5 per my projected P/E: way overvalued. Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is also high at 1.3. M* says stock trades at a 3% discount to fair value.
My overall impression of this stock is nothing worth considering at this time. The C [Financial Health] grade from M* is due to significant margin deterioration (over 870 and 720 basis points in Q4 2025 for gross and operating margin, respectively), increased competition from newer local semiconductor entrants in the Chinese market, high stock volatility (2.66 beta), geopolitical tensions, soaring operating expenses (up 34% YOY in ’25), and inventory accumulation.
Per U/D, ACMR is a BUY under $28.70/share. BetterInvesting® TAR criterion would be met [64.4 / ((14.87 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] = $32.20 given a forecast high price ~ $64 (no dividend).
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