INTU Stock Study (1-19-26)

Posted by Mark on June 19, 2025 at 07:03 | Last modified: January 19, 2026 16:23

I recently studied Intuit, Inc. (INTU, $545.25).

M* writes:

     > Intuit serves small and midsize businesses with accounting
     > software QuickBooks and online marketing platform
     > Mailchimp. The company also operates retail tax filing
     > tool TurboTax, personal finance platform Credit Karma,
     > and a suite of professional tax offerings for accountants.
     > Founded in the mid-1980s, Intuit enjoys a dominant
     > market share for small-to-midsize business accounting
     > and self-serve tax filing in the US.

Over the past decade, this large-size company has grown sales and EPS at annualized rates of 17.8% and 16.0%, respectively. Lines are up, straight, and parallel except for EPS dip in ’22. Shares Outstanding increase 6.8% (0.7% per year). Five-year EPS R^2 is 0.87 and Value Line (VL) gives an Earnings Predictability score of 95.

Over the past decade, PTPM leads peer and industry averages while ranging from 20.0% in ’22 to 28.6% in ’20 with last-5-year mean of 23.0%. ROE leads peer and industry averages despite decreasing from 62.8% (’16) to 19.0% (’25) with last-5-year mean of 16.2%. Debt-to-Capital is less than peer and industry averages while ranging from 10.4% in ’19 to 46.3% in ’16 with last-5-year mean of 26.2%.

Quick Ratio is 1.3 and Interest Coverage 22.2 per M* who assigns “Wide” Economic Moat and gives an A grade for Financial Health (per BetterInvesting website). VL rates the company A for Financial Strength (and reports Interest Coverage over 14).

With regard to sales growth:

• YF gives YOY ACE 12.6% for both ’26 and ’27 (based on 31 analysts).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 12.2% and 12.1% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (7 analysts).
• VL projects 12.8% annualized growth from ’25-’29.
• CFRA projects 12.5% YOY and 12.3% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27, respectively.
• M* gives 2-year ACE of 12.2% and projects 12.8%/year from ’25-’30 in Equity Report.

My 11.0% forecast is below the range.

With regard to EPS growth:

• MarketWatch projects 14.5% and 14.3% per year for ’25-’27 and ’25-’28, respectively (based on 34 analysts).
• Nasdaq.com gives ACE 14.2% YOY and 16.9%/year for ’27 and ’26-’28 (8 / 8 / 2 analysts for ’26 / ’27 / ’28).
• Seeking Alpha projects 4-year annualized growth of 14.2%.
• Finviz gives ACE 5-year annualized growth of 14.4% (7).
• LSEG estimates LTG at 14.2%.
• Argus projects 5-year annualized growth of 11.0%.
• YF gives YOY ACE 15.2% and 13.9% for ’26 and ’27, respectively (33).
• Zacks gives YOY ACE 14.8% and 14.3% for ’26 and ’27 (9) along with 5-year growth of 14.2%/year.
• VL projects 13.2% annualized growth from ’25-’29.
• CFRA projects growth of 15.0% YOY and 14.5% per year for ’26 and ’25-’27 along with 3-year CAGR of 16.0%.
• M* gives long-term growth ACE of 16.1% and projects 15.1%/year from ’25-’30 in Equity Report.

My 10.0% forecast is below the long-term estimate range (mean of eight: 12.2%). Initial value is ’25 EPS of $13.67/share instead of 2026 Q1 EPS of $14.63 (TTM).

My Forecast High P/E is 36.0. Over the past 10 years, high P/E increases from 38.5 to 59.5 (’25) with a last-5-year mean (excluding ’22 upside outlier of 98.5) of 64.0 and a last-5-year-mean average P/E of 53.2. I am below the range.

My Forecast Low P/E is 25.0. Over the past 10 years, low P/E increases from 26.2 to 39.0 (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 42.4. I am forecasting below the range.

My Low Stock Price Forecast (LSPF) is $405.00. Default based on initial value given above ($341.80) seems unreasonably low at 37.3% less than previous close and 35.8% less than 52-week low. My arbitrary selection [that effectively raises my Projected Low P/E to 29.6] is 25.7% and 24.0% less, respectively.

Over the past 10 years, Payout Ratio (PR) decreases from 39.5% (’16) to 30.4% (’25) with a last-5-year mean of 34.1%. I am forecasting below the range at 30.0%.

These inputs land INTU in the HOLD zone with a U/D ratio of 1.8. Total Annualized Return (TAR) is 8.6%.

PAR (using Forecast Average—not High—P/E) of 5.2% is less than I seek for a large-size company. If a healthy margin of safety (MOS) anchors this study, then I can proceed based on TAR instead.

To assess MOS, I compare my inputs with those of Member Sentiment (MS). Based on 111 studies in the past 90 days (my study and 44 other outliers excluded), averages (lower of mean/median) for projected sales growth, projected EPS growth, Forecast High P/E, Forecast Low P/E, and PR are 12.0%, 13.9%, 50.0, 37.7, and 33.9% respectively. I am lower across the board. VL [M*] projects a future average annual P/E of 33.5 [15.9: once again unreasonably low] that is less than MS (43.9) and greater than mine (30.5).

MS high / low EPS are $27.73 / $14.24 versus my $22.02 / $13.67 (per share). My high EPS is less due mainly to a lower growth rate. VL (M*) high EPS of $33.05 ($31.40) soars above both.

MS LSPF of $493.20 implies a Forecast Low P/E of 34.6 versus the above-stated 37.7. MS LSPF is 8.1% less than the default $14.24/share * 37.7 = $536.85 resulting in more conservative zoning. MS LSPF is 21.8% greater than mine, however.

MOS is robust in the study because my inputs are near or below historical/analyst/MS averages/ranges. Also backing this assessment is MS TAR exceeding mine by 8.5% per year (possibly a bit high) and a much higher LSPF.

With regard to valuation, PEG is 1.7 and 3.4 per Zacks and my projected P/E, respectively: slightly overvalued (2.6 per M*). Relative Value [(current P/E) / 5-year-mean average P/E] is low at 0.70. “Quick and Dirty DCF” has stock undervalued by 31%.

Per U/D, INTU is a BUY under $502/share. BI TAR criterion would be met [792.7 / ((14.07 / 100 ) +1 ) ^ 5] ~ $410 given a forecast high price ~$793.

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